1. I still like the northern Florida path, only because the satellite images showing the clouds being pulled off to the east, which typically suggests the steering flow will take Debby out across northern Florida. This is about 100 degrees different from most forecasts. I am still keeping an open mind that Debby misses the trough connection and goes to Louisiana. I think Texas is looking unlikely that Debby will go there.
2. The operational models GFS has remained the most consistent taking Debby across Florida via the connection with the trough. Euro went from southern Texas to Louisiana which makes one think it's having problems. NAM is doing the normal here-and-there path.
3. Below is the spread of the hurricane models. GFDL goes with a Florida hit while the spread is 180 degrees on the long range, while the medium range paths have the consensus going to Florida.
4. The strength of Debby will depend on how long Debby sits in the Gulf before making landfall. Looking at the radar wind velocity, I do think Debby will become a hurricane before making landfall. Many places along the Florida Panhandle will see flooding rains and gusty winds the next few days.
Medium Rang Paths
Long Range Paths.
Severe storms will hit the Northeast and western Texas today. Tornadoes could occur in Texas.
Severe weather for the Ohio Valley and Northeast today.
One more day of tornadoes, some which can be large and devastating.
Tornadoes could be worse today given the jet coming out into the Plains.
We are going into a five- to seven-day period of severe weather which will include tornadoes. We could see over 100 reports of tornadoes.
Latest map on the severe weather areas this weekend into Monday. Monday could be the big day.