If you are watching what is going on the pattern currently, it is what I believe will eventually lead into the overall winter pattern. We are have troughs moving into the Great Lakes, and that is leading to chilly weather while the southern branch remains active with storms cutting under the troughs and eventually phasing to produce storms. In a few months, a pattern like this would lead to a lot of snow for many folks from the Midwest to the New England.
I added a map showing the highlights this week. Miriam is probably going to be a big rain maker for the parts of the Southwest into Texas and could end up being a rain maker all the way to the East coast. There are some disagreements between the GFS and Euro on the eventual movement of Miriam into the U.S. I am leaning more toward the Euro showing the system coming out an entity and not a system that gets broken into pieces as per the GFS.
The other highlight will be the heavy storms along the front. The front will sag south the next couple of days and that could lead to storms developing along the front which may have hail. It's getting cold aloft now to hail storms will become a little more common now.
Track of tropical system critical for development, but South Florida could be threatened first.
A new tropical system may be a threat to southern Florida late in the weekend and early next week.
The tropics will produce a storm that could impact the United States coast.
A cold front will be led by severe storms all the way to the Northeast this weekend. Tropics could produce a big storm.
A cold front coming east will produce several days of several weather. Tropics could get active next week as a big high comes down.
A cold front that will bring a change to nicer weather will also produce severe storms in the Plains first Thursday and Friday then eventually in the East this weekend.