If you are watching what is going on the pattern currently, it is what I believe will eventually lead into the overall winter pattern. We are have troughs moving into the Great Lakes, and that is leading to chilly weather while the southern branch remains active with storms cutting under the troughs and eventually phasing to produce storms. In a few months, a pattern like this would lead to a lot of snow for many folks from the Midwest to the New England.
I added a map showing the highlights this week. Miriam is probably going to be a big rain maker for the parts of the Southwest into Texas and could end up being a rain maker all the way to the East coast. There are some disagreements between the GFS and Euro on the eventual movement of Miriam into the U.S. I am leaning more toward the Euro showing the system coming out an entity and not a system that gets broken into pieces as per the GFS.
The other highlight will be the heavy storms along the front. The front will sag south the next couple of days and that could lead to storms developing along the front which may have hail. It's getting cold aloft now to hail storms will become a little more common now.
Tornadoes could be worse today given the jet coming out into the Plains.
We are going into a five- to seven-day period of severe weather which will include tornadoes. We could see over 100 reports of tornadoes.
Latest map on the severe weather areas this weekend into Monday. Monday could be the big day.
Marginal severe weather the rest of the week, but the weekend could turn ugly in the Plains as the tornadoes return.
Tornadoes remain low but that may change this weekend.
More severe weather today into Saturday in the form of hail and damaging winds.