1. It would appear that we may have a record lowest daily NAO value for June. Below are the values from previous years. We need to wait until they post the daily values to see if we did hit a record low or not. But in any case, the blocking is producing the cool weather across the Northeast, but this should switch this weekend as we go back into a warmer weather pattern in the East again. It would appear that we are going through a flip-flopping weather pattern where we go from warm to cool about every two weeks or so. As the ridge builds into the East next week and the week after, we may see the tropics light up again. In fact, I put a map out showing the potential area for tropical activity the week of June 18. Interestingly, the GFS continues to show something brewing and coming up into the Gulf of Mexico that week.
This all means that we are going to shift into a warmer weather pattern next week in the East with the storms tracking across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains and upper Great Lakes. I think we will still be in a severe weather pattern with storms rimming the ridge next week and some developing across the South.
Date NAO Value
2. Another day of severe weather with the main focus in MT today. Looks like wind damage and large hail, but a few tornadoes are possible given the negative, strong jet and high helicity. It may turn out that the tornado activity ends up in the Canada Prairies by late evening.
Sunday will be the active day for severe weather and the potential for damaging storms.
Severe weather will develop in the Midwest Sunday and tornadoes could occur with the storms.
System in the Gulf could become a TD...outbreak of severe weather Sunday.
System in the Gulf has a low chance for development the next two days.
Video today looks at the tropical storm and where it will go. No extreme storms, just a few heavy ones.
Here are the scenarios for the track of the tropical system.