Henry Margusity

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Cool Now but Pattern Flips Back to Warm

June 5, 2012; 8:51 AM ET


1. It would appear that we may have a record lowest daily NAO value for June. Below are the values from previous years. We need to wait until they post the daily values to see if we did hit a record low or not. But in any case, the blocking is producing the cool weather across the Northeast, but this should switch this weekend as we go back into a warmer weather pattern in the East again. It would appear that we are going through a flip-flopping weather pattern where we go from warm to cool about every two weeks or so. As the ridge builds into the East next week and the week after, we may see the tropics light up again. In fact, I put a map out showing the potential area for tropical activity the week of June 18. Interestingly, the GFS continues to show something brewing and coming up into the Gulf of Mexico that week.

This all means that we are going to shift into a warmer weather pattern next week in the East with the storms tracking across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains and upper Great Lakes. I think we will still be in a severe weather pattern with storms rimming the ridge next week and some developing across the South.

Date NAO Value

6/2/1998 -2.188

6/13/1971 -2.113

6/11/1982 -2.044

6/16/1998 -2.021

6/11/1971 -1.984

6/12/1971 -1.982

6/3/1998 -1.982

6/5/1998 -1.98

6/24/1950 -1.979

6/1/1998 -1.976

2. Another day of severe weather with the main focus in MT today. Looks like wind damage and large hail, but a few tornadoes are possible given the negative, strong jet and high helicity. It may turn out that the tornado activity ends up in the Canada Prairies by late evening.

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Henry Margusity
AccuWeather.com severe weather expert, Henry Margusity, offers the Meteorological Madness blog including detailed analysis of severe weather across the US.