I am trying to figure out the issue of the NAO going negative and which coastal storm will be the one that means business. The current storm is developing in response to the NAO going negative, but the upper-air pattern is so weak and the trough is positive that while a storm will develop, it's highly unlikely at this point the storm is going to get tucked in close to the coast. That does not mean that coastal area will escape without any rain and gusty winds.
The issue I see in the development of a coastal storm is whether it's this one or the next week after Thanksgiving when the NAO is peaking negative. The GFS is certainly saying it's the next one we need to worry about in regards to rain, snow and wind issues. It does make sense though that the second of the two storms would be the bigger of the two given that the blocking has to get established first.
Quiet week as high pressure dominates the eastern part of the country.
A cold front will produce severe storms across the Midwest Saturday. Odile's remains will bring more flooding problems.
Heavy rains from Odile will spread across southern New Mexico into Texas. Flash flooding may occur.
Dangerous flooding will occur as Odile heads into southern Arizona.
Odile will bring some serious flooding to parts of Arizona into New Mexico.
Flash flooding will be the big story across the Southwest this week.