Henry Margusity

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Coastal Storm Issues... Which One?

November 15, 2012; 10:37 AM ET


I am trying to figure out the issue of the NAO going negative and which coastal storm will be the one that means business. The current storm is developing in response to the NAO going negative, but the upper-air pattern is so weak and the trough is positive that while a storm will develop, it's highly unlikely at this point the storm is going to get tucked in close to the coast. That does not mean that coastal area will escape without any rain and gusty winds.

The issue I see in the development of a coastal storm is whether it's this one or the next week after Thanksgiving when the NAO is peaking negative. The GFS is certainly saying it's the next one we need to worry about in regards to rain, snow and wind issues. It does make sense though that the second of the two storms would be the bigger of the two given that the blocking has to get established first.

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Henry Margusity
AccuWeather.com severe weather expert, Henry Margusity, offers the Meteorological Madness blog including detailed analysis of severe weather across the US.