Henry Margusity

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Big Tornado Day...

April 10, 2011; 7:10 AM ET


1. It's clear by the pattern that the bulk of the severe weather will remain in the Midwest, mainly east of a line from Fargo, Omaha, Kansas City, Tulsa and Shreveport. Tornadoes in the High Plains will be few and far between this spring. You may ask, so what? Well, with the severe weather remaining in the Midwest, it means a greater risk for damage to life and property considering the population density of that area compared to the High Plains. It also means that the Vortex 2 folks may not have that many opportunities to research tornadoes since they will be outside the research zone.

The other aspect of the severe weather is the complexes of severe storms that will cascade over the ridge and down the back side of the Atlantic trough. As we saw yesterday, a Derecho developed in Illinois and moved all the way to the South Carolina coast. Even this morning, we see a complex of storms over the Great Lakes that will eventually turn southeast into western New York and Pennsylvania. I don't expect them to be severe.

2. Our outbreak today will start after 4 p.m. in the Midwest. We should see many large tornadoes given the dynamics and unusually high temperatures and dew points. The bulk of the tornadoes will occur from southern Wisconsin back into Iowa and Missouri.

3. The line of storms will move east overnight and should redevelop on Monday afternoon. While tornadoes are possible, I think the severe weather event will translate to more of a wind and hail event on Monday, especially from New York into Pennsylvania and Ohio.

The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of AccuWeather, Inc. or AccuWeather.com


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Henry Margusity
AccuWeather.com severe weather expert, Henry Margusity, offers the Meteorological Madness blog including detailed analysis of severe weather across the US.