1. It's clear by the pattern that the bulk of the severe weather will remain in the Midwest, mainly east of a line from Fargo, Omaha, Kansas City, Tulsa and Shreveport. Tornadoes in the High Plains will be few and far between this spring. You may ask, so what? Well, with the severe weather remaining in the Midwest, it means a greater risk for damage to life and property considering the population density of that area compared to the High Plains. It also means that the Vortex 2 folks may not have that many opportunities to research tornadoes since they will be outside the research zone.
The other aspect of the severe weather is the complexes of severe storms that will cascade over the ridge and down the back side of the Atlantic trough. As we saw yesterday, a Derecho developed in Illinois and moved all the way to the South Carolina coast. Even this morning, we see a complex of storms over the Great Lakes that will eventually turn southeast into western New York and Pennsylvania. I don't expect them to be severe.
2. Our outbreak today will start after 4 p.m. in the Midwest. We should see many large tornadoes given the dynamics and unusually high temperatures and dew points. The bulk of the tornadoes will occur from southern Wisconsin back into Iowa and Missouri.
3. The line of storms will move east overnight and should redevelop on Monday afternoon. While tornadoes are possible, I think the severe weather event will translate to more of a wind and hail event on Monday, especially from New York into Pennsylvania and Ohio.
A cold front passing through the Southeast will produce strong storms today. An upper-level low may bring heavy rains and flooding to parts of the mid-Atlantic later this week.
Storms in the mid-Atlantic can be severe today. Pattern changes to a cooler one later this week.
A stormy time across the southern Plains today into Saturday. Flooding rains will be the main issue during the period.
Storms will be severe in the southern mid-Atlantic and in the Southern Plains. Tornadoes possible in the Plains Friday.
The focus of the severe weather will be across southern Iowa into western Illnois where storms should develop around the upper-level low.
Storm coming out of the Rockies will bring tornadoes and severe winds to the Plains and Mississippi. Mid-Atlantic has big storms too.