The latest operational GFS model has come around the storm idea as well so it would appear the consensus of the models on the storm next week is starting to come together. My feeling is that we will see a sub-990 mb low sitting off of Cape May, N.J., by late Wednesday or Wednesday night. That would put the heavy snow area from the Roanoke through the Poconos with the major cities on the rain/snow line. Any deviation east in the path of the storm would mean heavy snow into the major cities. We have three days to hone in on snow amounts, but keep in mind, the storm is a product of the pattern changing, in my opinion. The NAO is going toward neutral and the PNA is going down, which in the grand scheme of things, is when big storms like this can appear.
Elliot pointed out that the 1962 storm is almost identical to the storm that is predicted to occur next week in many aspects, including the surface, upper air and NAO patterns. The storm produced 1-2 feet of snow in the Appalachians and snow and rain into the major cities. The weather map from the storm is below. I do have to admit, the 1962 storm was from a tweet by someone who has an amazing memory of just about every historic snowstorm and hurricane.
To me, this is an exciting storm with a lot of potential to be a major East Coast nor'easter, one that produces heavy wet snow, strong winds, coastal flooding and beach erosion.
Stalled upper-level storm will bring more rain, some heavy at times.
Upper-level storm will bring heavy rains to the mid-Atlantic.
An upper low will dive into the Ohio Valley producing an area of heavy rain.
A front settles down into Texas and causes heavy rains.
Severe storms over the High Plains. Video looks at the tropical issues coming up.
Tropics may produce storms that could impact the U.S.