The latest operational GFS model has come around the storm idea as well so it would appear the consensus of the models on the storm next week is starting to come together. My feeling is that we will see a sub-990 mb low sitting off of Cape May, N.J., by late Wednesday or Wednesday night. That would put the heavy snow area from the Roanoke through the Poconos with the major cities on the rain/snow line. Any deviation east in the path of the storm would mean heavy snow into the major cities. We have three days to hone in on snow amounts, but keep in mind, the storm is a product of the pattern changing, in my opinion. The NAO is going toward neutral and the PNA is going down, which in the grand scheme of things, is when big storms like this can appear.
Elliot pointed out that the 1962 storm is almost identical to the storm that is predicted to occur next week in many aspects, including the surface, upper air and NAO patterns. The storm produced 1-2 feet of snow in the Appalachians and snow and rain into the major cities. The weather map from the storm is below. I do have to admit, the 1962 storm was from a tweet by someone who has an amazing memory of just about every historic snowstorm and hurricane.
To me, this is an exciting storm with a lot of potential to be a major East Coast nor'easter, one that produces heavy wet snow, strong winds, coastal flooding and beach erosion.
Heavy thunderstorms will develop here and there across the country.
Widespread wind damage today with a few tornadoes mixed in as well.
While the tropics become quiet, the severe weather will continue for at least the next two weeks or more.
Hurricane Arthur to go over the Outerbanks. Beaches in the Northeast get over-washed during high tides. Severe storms today with flash flooding.
Arthur coming up the coast as a hurricane. Impacts in the form of wind, heavy rains and coastal flooding all the way to Maine.
The big story will be Hurricane Arthur forming and coming up the coast. Severe storms hit the East.