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    Henry Margusity

    At Least Two Snow Events Next Week; One Could be BIG

    12/21/2012, 5:37:06 AM


    The operational models seem to be coming to a consensus on the storm(s) next week. Just a side note, the latest NAO is going more to positive/neutral while the PNA is finally going positive, so while we are going to get the cold air to come east, we just don't have the strong blocking to get major snowstorms in the big cities, but that does not mean it can't snow. Sometimes, the weaker to moderate storms can still produce heavy amounts of snow.

    As for next week, we have a weak storm moving through Pennsylvania into southern New England Christmas Eve that can produce a swath of 1-4 inches of snow as shown on the map below.

    The second, more impressive storm starts Christmas night with snow in the southern Plains and moves northeastward, producing a swath of heavy snow eastern Oklahoma all the way to Maine. On the map below, I show the axis of potential heavy snow meaning amounts in excess of 6 inches.

    Even behind that storm, there are more storms coming through the East that can produce snow as the winter pattern really gets going. In some ways, the pattern reminds of what happened a few years ago when we had storm after storm in the eastern part of the country. If we can only get the blocking to go very negative and the PNS to go very positive, things could get even wilder.



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    Henry Margusity