Note: I will be out of the office Wednesday and Thursday, so no blog post until Friday.
I posted two images below. One shows where heavy storms may develop, and the other shows the wind speeds off the NMM model for the Plains. While that image shows sustained winds, gusts can be as high as 70 mph in the Dakotas into Nebraska and up to 50 mph in Kansas and Iowa.
In the thunderstorm area, the main impact will be damaging winds. With that much momentum, we will probably see a line of storms develop with embedded bow echos and strong winds, perhaps to 65 mph.
I did note in the video that the GFS model continues to show a hurricane hitting Florida after day 10. While it's very far out there, it's still not out of the question that it can happen. There is a big high coming down, and big highs can help spin up storms this time of the year. It will be interesting to see if the Euro will pick up on the storm as we get closer to the time of the event.
The winds will be damaging across the northern Plains today. Expect gusts over 60 mph!
The week will start stormy for the Northern Plains with severe weather followed by high winds.
Next week will start of with severe weather and will end with a tropical threat aong the East coasty.
We may see tornadoes across the northern Plains during the next 10 days.
The active severe weather pattern will hit the northern Plains Thursday and cascade into the Upper Midwest Friday.
The Northeast will have strong storms prior to a nicer weather pattern that is coming in for the rest of the week. Video looks at the El Nino pattern.