On the map below, I tried to highlight all the problem spots with the storm. I remain concerned about how much snow will fall across the Northeast. I see warm layers in the cross sections that may mean more of a mixed precipitation event instead of all snow. I do think that once the arctic front gets involved, it will be all snow from western New York into eastern Canada.
The latest NAM agrees with the map below, but does show more snow on the back side of the storm across the southern Appalachians into central Pennsylvania. It also shows 2-3 inches of snow across central Pennsylvania at the start Tuesday afternoon.
Winds along the coast from Virginia north into Maine will be strong with gusts up and over 50 mph, New England could get the southerly wind lashing that occurs in this situation with the storm cutting west of them and intensifying.
Severe weather will occur across the Southeast Tuesday afternoon and night. A line of storms will produce damaging wind gusts.
A second severe weather area may occur across the I-95 corridor as we get a dam-breaking high wind event. In that situation, the cold air builds up across the west slopes of the Appalachians and as the jet blows over the second storm passes, the cold air rushes over the mountains with a band of low-topped showers and we see gusts over 50 mph into DC, Philly, NYC and New England.
Tropical system remains disorganized, but once in the Gulf of Mexico it may start to develop.
Heavy storms along the front today. System in the tropics is having problems but should get its act together soon.
Track of tropical system critical for development, but South Florida could be threatened first.
A new tropical system may be a threat to southern Florida late in the weekend and early next week.
The tropics will produce a storm that could impact the United States coast.
A cold front will be led by severe storms all the way to the Northeast this weekend. Tropics could produce a big storm.