1. In the video, I looked at the storm that hit the graduation in New Jersey. I am sure it's not a tornado or a funnel cloud, but I'm not 100% sure it's not a wall cloud. What I don't see in the video is any rotation. What I believe we are seeing is an updraft along the gust front that causes clouds to form in a shape that resembles a funnel. As the air rises along the slope of the gust front, mixing occurs which causes clouds to form under the base of the storm which can resemble a funnel cloud or wall cloud. I did check the radar and could not find any rotation. What I did find was air blowing out of the storm which would create a stronger gust front and thus air rising sharply up the gust front. The story is posted on AccuWeather.com for you to read and see pictures.
2. Map below shows the thunderstorms for this weekend. Looks more wind and hail issues through the weekend.
3. New El Nino information came in and it shows a moderate El Nino by the Fall. If we go with a moderate El Nino, we need to look at the typical weather during an moderate El Nino. Research time.
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Severe storms will develop in the Ohio Valley and continue east tonight and Saturday.
The next couple of weeks will bring several big storms.
Heavy rains will hit California this weekend and cause serious flooding.
Another snowstorm will hit Maine and add to the snowcover.
A severe weather outbreak will occur Tuesday across eastern Texas and spread into Louisiana Tuesday night.