1. In the video, I looked at the storm that hit the graduation in New Jersey. I am sure it's not a tornado or a funnel cloud, but I'm not 100% sure it's not a wall cloud. What I don't see in the video is any rotation. What I believe we are seeing is an updraft along the gust front that causes clouds to form in a shape that resembles a funnel. As the air rises along the slope of the gust front, mixing occurs which causes clouds to form under the base of the storm which can resemble a funnel cloud or wall cloud. I did check the radar and could not find any rotation. What I did find was air blowing out of the storm which would create a stronger gust front and thus air rising sharply up the gust front. The story is posted on AccuWeather.com for you to read and see pictures.
2. Map below shows the thunderstorms for this weekend. Looks more wind and hail issues through the weekend.
3. New El Nino information came in and it shows a moderate El Nino by the Fall. If we go with a moderate El Nino, we need to look at the typical weather during an moderate El Nino. Research time.
Severe storms and snow mark the Memorial Day weekend.
Severe storms will hit the Northeast and western Texas today. Tornadoes could occur in Texas.
Severe weather for the Ohio Valley and Northeast today.
One more day of tornadoes, some which can be large and devastating.
Tornadoes could be worse today given the jet coming out into the Plains.
We are going into a five- to seven-day period of severe weather which will include tornadoes. We could see over 100 reports of tornadoes.