Wednesday, 11:55 A.M.
I'm seeing more and more people adding to the chorus of calling the winter "over" in the wake of the snowicane now lashing Cape Cod and aiming for Nova Scotia and New Brunswick. This is one nasty storm, one of the stronger ones you will ever see rolling through the Northwest Atlantic. I've been looking at observations and web cams from Nantucket Island and parts of the cape, and the images that you can make out are simply wild! Nantucket has picked up over a half foot of snow thus far, and winds have gusted just over 80 mph in two separate locations on the island. This will deepen to the point where it would be considered a Category 2 or even a Category 3 hurricane!
It is driving extraordinarily cold air all the way to the Gulf Coast and off the coast, with temperatures some 20 degrees or more below normal. Look at the morning lows:
High pressure moving into the East tonight will mean a clear, calm, cold night with record lows in much of the East, but then there will be a turnaround in temperatures starting tomorrow afternoon, particularly in the Tennessee and Ohio valleys.
A storm forming over the eastern Rockies and western Plains late tonight will head northeastward toward Wisconsin tomorrow, and I'm here to tell you the air mass north and west of the track of the storm is hardly warm. Look at the 12z March 26 NAM 850mb temperature forecast for early tomorrow afternoon:
That means it will snow north and west of the track of the storm, impacting parts of eastern South Dakota and Minnesota into northern and western Wisconsin. This is not unheard of for late March, and for most areas from Chicago on south and east, it's not a concern with this first storm.
There will be a cold front behind this storm, and some of the cold air over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest will slide southeastward behind it. It won't get very far to the south, but far enough that it may come into play when storm number two rolls around.
And by Saturday morning, that second storm will move into Kentucky. Here's the NAM forecast for Saturday morning:
And the corresponding 850 mb temperatures:
That implies it could snow in or near Chicago late Friday night into Saturday morning. And as this storm gets better organized, it will have enough cold air on the northern flank of it that snow is a possibility across parts of Michigan and northernmost Ohio into upstate New York and northern New England later Saturday and Saturday night, then into Sunday.
And that's just the second storm. A weaker one follows into the western Great Lakes late Monday, and there may be some snow with that system in parts of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest, and perhaps across parts of upstate New York and northern New England on Tuesday. Again, it may not be outside of the normal areas where snow would typically be found in late March, but it suggests that some places a little farther south won't be far from seeing snow.
As we go into April, it wouldn't shock me to see another amplifying trough develop that would tap some of the remaining arctic air in Canada. In turn, if there's a well placed storm, I could see how it snows in places that think the snow is now over. Right now that seems like a low probability event, and the pattern overall won't be nearly as far below normal in the coming days as it has been most of 2104 to this point. Still, in the back of my mind, I'm not sure I'm ready to throw the towel in completely on winter.
The record warmth of recent days will be replaced by a much colder air mass following a cold front moving from the Ohio Valley to the East. Rain will change to snow in the higher ground of upstate New York and northern New England.
Nicole crossed Bermuda Thursday morning as a major hurricane. Two storms will blast the Northwest with high winds and heavy rains in the next 72 hours, forcing warmer air out into the nation's midsection.
Matthew is a dangerous hurricane bearing down on the east coast of Florida. While it ravages Florida and parts of the Southeast into the weekend, it will spare the Northeast of its fury.
Major Hurricane Matthew is now a significant threat to the entire Eastern Seaboard Thursday through the weekend with with potentially destructive winds and excessive rains.
Heavy rain will soak drought-stricken areas of the mid-Atlantic over the next couple of days. Focus will then shift to Matthew and its potential to impact the Eastern Seaboard with more heavy rain later next week.
Summer has ended astronomically, but from a meteorological standpoint, there's plenty more warm weather heading into October from the Plains to the East.