Wednesday, 11:35 a.m.
I know, I know. The title is a little odd, but I wanted to do something that started with the same letter, and that's what I came up with for today. It kind of works. It is, after all, Wednesday. It's about the weather. And I'll do it in bite-sized nuggets, hence the term 'wee'. The wisdom part? Well, I guess I'll have leave that for you, the reader, to judge!
1) Ernesto weakens over Yucatan. When he came ashore overnight, it had a central pressure of 979mb but since then it has steadily weakened. It will re-emerge over the southwest Gulf/Bay of Campeche tonight and may gain some of its strength back tomorrow, but it's unlikely to be a hurricane again as its track will just be too close to land. Nevertheless, there will be plenty of wind and rain along its path over the next 48 to 72 hours before Ernesto rains itself out over the mountains of central Mexico this weekend.
2) A strong tropical wave over the east-central Atlantic will be slow to develop in the coming days. It may, in time, become the next named system, but it is currently fighting some dry air and wind shear, and that will mean its development curve will be slow for at least the next couple of days.
3) Biggest cooldown in months for Plains and Mississippi Valley. A major buckling of the jet stream is imminent, and it will bring with is a significantly cooler air mass down the length of the Plains and Mississippi Valley, eventually spreading into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley this weekend. There may be a day or two in the heart of the cooldown with temperatures as much as 10 degrees below average. Considering the persistent heat up to now, this will be quite a shock to the system, but equally as welcomed.
4) Wet period In the East. More humid air will surge all the way up into New England over the next 48 hours ahead of a cold front that will slow down upon crossing the Appalachians. While the cooler air west of this front will have no trouble moving into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley, it will have a much harder time reaching the East, and with the air aloft continually cooling, there should be numerous showers and heavy thunderstorms Friday into Saturday before the front inches off the coast and the air aloft begins to warm.
5) Heat shifts West. Actually, it already did. The highs yesterday:
The upper-level ridge will hold its ground into the weekend over the Rockies, keeping it hot in much of the West.
Keep watch on the heat. It will return to the Plains next week, if not farther downstream as the week progresses.
A wave of low pressure will clip the mid-Atlantic coast late tomorrow and tomorrow night, possibly resulting in some snow. A stronger storm could bring snow to parts of the East next week.
A deepening storm coming out of the Rockies and head for the Great Lakes will dump heavy snow from Colorado to Wisconsin and Minnesota, while springlike warmth will fuel severe thunderstorms from the Ohio Valley to the Gulf Coast.
Despite the historical snowfall from the Blizzard of 2016, a warm surge later this weekend and early next week will wipe out most of the snow that fell during the storm.
A major nor'easter will bring heavy, wind-blown snow through the mid-Atlantic region later Friday through Saturday, sparing much of New England of its fury.
A deepening storm heading for the East Coast Friday night may paralyze parts of the mid-Atlantic with heavy snow and strong winds through Saturday.
Another arctic air mass is in place from the Upper Midwest to the Northeast today, with another to follow this weekend, but they don't have the staying power of the past two winter seasons.