Monday, 11:30 a.m.
It was only four days, but it was a wonderful time away this past weekend in Connecticut. It was great to see some family members on a joyous occasion, the wedding of one of my nephews! Congratulations to the newlyweds, Adam and Jennifer! Many happy wishes to them!
I do know it got hot and pretty humid. Many locations hit 90 degrees at least once between Thursday and Sunday, and many did it three days. I was certainly thankful to have my base of operations near the water. Aside from an ill-advised ride in the middle of that heat Thursday afternoon across the interior and a scheduled round of golf well inland with my brother, the father of the groom, the groom himself and his best man, most of my time was spent within 10 miles of that natural air conditioning, the sea breeze. And it made a big difference!
The heat is gone, and the humidity will be taken away this afternoon and tonight as a cold front clears the Northeast and mid-Atlantic coastlines. It will take the rain away, too, allowing for a couple of nice days with sunshine and relatively low humidity.
After that, though, two separate systems will bring rain to bear on the East. The first of these is an upper-level low rolling into the northern Plains. Here's the latest 12z 3 June NAM 500mb forecast for tonight:
That feature will bring a soaking rain through Montana into North Dakota this afternoon and tonight, and some flooding issues may result. It will also bring showers and some thunderstorms into the Midwest tomorrow into Wednesday, with some of that unsettled weather also impacting much of the Plains states outside of Texas.
By Thursday, the upper-level low will open up into more of an upper-level trough across the Mississippi Valley:
That will send more and more moisture into the Great Lakes as well as the Ohio and Tennessee valleys, with some it spilling into the mid-Atlantic states and the interior Northeast.
At the same time, there's trouble brewing in the tropics. Here's the latest infrared image from the Caribbean:
There's not much organization to this area of moisture stretching from the Yucatan Peninsula and Northwest Caribbean into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, but as the whole area slowly drifts northward into the southeastern Gulf over the next 48 hours, the pressure will gradually lower. It's not a slam dunk that this will become a tropical depression, but I believe it will. It's unlikely to have enough time at that point to grow into a hurricane, so that's good news. Either way, though, with the upper-level trough approaching from the Mississippi Valley later in the week, the feature in the eastern Gulf at that point, be it a tropical storm, tropical depression or just a trough, will begin to accelerate off to the north-northeast. More importantly, it will mean a good soaking for much of the Sunshine State, with the greatest threat of flooding more over South Florida, where it has rained a lot more of late than in northern Florida.
From there, the tropical moisture should largely head up the Eastern Seaboard, bringing wet weather to most places Friday and Friday night before any drying can take place from southwest to northeast on Saturday.
While all of that is happening, there will be another shot of very cool air moving into the northern Rockies and Plains behind the trough later this week. Look at the projected 2-meter temperature anomalies for Thursday:
Just when you thought the chilly weather was finally done, here comes another blast from the past! The core of the cooling will be from the Plains to the Appalachians, with much less of it ever reaching the East Coast this weekend and beyond.
That same image also suggests it will get mighty toasty in the West. It would agree with the forecast of ridging off the GFS ensembles for Friday evening:
Basically, west of the Divide, most of the week ahead will be much above normal, while areas to the east of the Divide to the Appalachians will be quite a bit below normal, save for Texas, where most of the week will be warm.
Summer has ended astronomically, but from a meteorological standpoint, there's plenty more warm weather heading into October from the Plains to the East.
Two strong cold fronts will charge across the country in the next week, eventually taking out the current hot and humid air mass from the Plains to the East Coast.
Over the next three days, hot and humid air will expand across the Mississippi Valley all the way to the East Coast. This will be followed by even more heat and humidity leading into the weekend.
Hermine will head across the Florida Panhandle late tonight, then cut across the coastal Carolinas and become a headache for the mid-Atlantic and southern New England over the Labor Day weekend. It will be followed by a heat wave later next week.
The heat and humidity will be erased from much of the East later this week, but warmth will spread from the Plains eastward over the weekend. The tropics could still play an important role in the weather along the Eastern Seaboard this weekend.
A dominant ridge will keep it hot from the Ohio Valley to the East into next week, while the disturbance north of Cuba is slow to develop as it approaches the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.