Tuesday, 11:59 A.M.
We're about two weeks away from the typical peek of the summer heat, a point where the average temperature is as high as it gets for the entire year in the northern hemisphere. The temperature rise between now and then is basically a degree to at most two for most places across the country. Yet here we are staring in the face of another cool air mass invading the northern Rockies and northern Plains, one that will set temperatures will below that normal mid summer heat. A large high pressure area is already settling in across the eastern Rockies and high plains. Since it was just moving into these locations this morning, the early morning minimums were not particularly noteworthy. Look, however, at tomorrow's projected temperature anomalies:
In the heart of that air mass across the Midwest into the Great Lakes, temperatures are being projected to reach 10 to 15 below normal! As cool and comfortable as it was late last week in the northern Plains and Midwest, and over the weekend in parts of the mid-Atlantic and Northeast, this air mass looks to be every bit as cool, if not a touch cooler when all is said and done.
The cooling will persist in the Ohio Valley through Thursday and into Friday morning before the atmosphere begins to rebound later Friday. The recovery will take place over the weekend farther east. The strongest rebound will be over the eastern Rockies and central and southern Plains, with temperatures likely to reach into the 90s in many places, with a few spots getting to 100. Look at the 0z July 8 GFS model projected maximum 2-meter temperatures for Saturday afternoon:
Some of this heat and humidity will have little trouble reaching the Ohio Valley and the mid-Atlantic states - if not Saturday, then almost certainly Sunday into Monday. But then another cold front will blast on through. And to get a better feel for that, I take you to the western Pacific of all places, where Typhoon Neoguri is about to make a turn to the northeast and head for the southwestern tip of Japan. Here's that forecast graphic:
Now why do I show you this? Well, the fact the Typhoon is about to recurve is a strong indicator of the impact it will have downstream in time. We refer to it in house as the 'typhoon rule', though its something pretty widely known in the meteorological industry. Almost like clockwork, once a typhoon recurves in the western Pacific, you will find a downstream upper level trough of low pressure will form somewhere over the eastern third of the country some 6 to 10 days down the road. If Neoguri turns northeastward tonight and tomorrow, that would suggest that by next Monday and Tuesday, there's very high likelihood of an upper level trough coming into the East.
Where specifically will that trough become established? That largely depends upon how far west the recurvature point is. The farther east it happens, the farther east this trough will show up. BY the same token, if the typhoon gets more to the west, then expect the downstream trough to end up west of the Appalachians. It's just that simple!
All of that is a elaborate way of saying that after the weekend warm up, another strong upper level trough is likely to rotate through the Plains and across the Ohio Valley. The GFS and Canadian models are pretty much in agreement with the timing, bringing a strong trough quickly through the flow and driving a cold front to the East Coast on Monday. Here's the GFS anomalies for Tuesday behind it:
You can make the case for this air mass being broader and cooler than the one currently invading the plains. Regardless of the exact timing and exact strength of the cooler air mass, it is coming, and it will continue the pattern of strong cold fronts blasting across the country, even into the heart of summer.
Just as I head for British Columbia to do an Ironman, the recent heat is leaving and heading onto the Plains, while it cools off in the Northwest for a spell.
A disturbance in Wyoming will be the focal point of unsettled weather into next week from the northern Plains to the Northeast, keeping heat at bay.
Record rains have inundated parts of the mid-Atlantic over the past 24 hours. A disturbance coming from Arizona will produce showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rain as it heads for the Midwest this weekend.
Closed lows aloft will bring wet weather to the Northeast and the Northwest into the midweek period, with cool air spreading from the Midwest to the East Coast the rest of this week.
Heat has been lacking from the Midwest to the mid-Atlantic much of the summer, and that pattern will continue though the week and weekend into early next week.
A smoke plume coming from forest fires in the Northwest Territories is dimming the sunshine from eastern Ontario and western Quebec down into the mid-Atlantic states today.