Thursday, 11:30 a.m.
For a change, there are no big storms on the weather map rolling across the country this morning. The one north of Maine that pulled the strong cold front to the East Coast overnight and early this morning continues to move northeastward and is pretty much out of the picture. There is a much weaker low passing through the northern Great Lakes, associated with a vigorous upper-level disturbance that is starved for moisture. The next low of any significance will be a very weak one that brings some showers across the central and southern Plains tonight and tomorrow, and points east across the Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley and Deep south this weekend.
In fact, I had to stretch to find a good storm:
That's a gale center, at last check a 993mb low earlier this morning. It looks like the center is around 32 West and 35 North, not exactly over tropical waters, so there's really no concern of this being upgraded to a subtropical storm (which would be Andrea, if that were to be the case). It's more of a novelty, honestly, something fun to point out in what is a pretty quiet weather pattern. It does, however, serve notice that we're really not far from the start of the Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane season on June 1. Yes, it is that close!
Domestically, though, it really is quiet for a change. That weekend feature is going to be a weak one as it plods along toward the Southeast and southern mid-Atlantic. That said, it will produce its share of rain. I don't believe the rain will be heavy enough on its own to cause any flooding through the weekend, but some places could pick up more than an inch of rain between now and the end of the day Sunday. Here's the 12z NAM model forecast of total precipitation through Sunday:
The concern would be that it could renew flooding in parts of Missouri and Illinois that were hit hard with excessive rain just a week ago, but my gut feeling is that the heaviest rain will fall outside those specific areas. Farther south and east, there may be a tendency for the precipitation to be a little more convective in nature, which is why some of the rainfall projections are somewhat higher over the Tennessee Valley and the southern Appalachians.
However, if you remove that system from the equation, there's not a lot going on across the country. It will be dry in the West by and large, and it's going to get progressively warmer into the weekend from the interior West and across the Rockies onto the Plains. This is clearly going to raise the concern for snow melt flooding across parts of the northern Rockies and especially the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest.
It will also turn warmer in the Northeast with time after a couple of cool days today and tomorrow. That warming will largely be accomplished with no rain, but as you head farther south into the mid-Atlantic, and westward toward the Appalachians and beyond, there will be some growing concerns for more clouds and some relatively light rain.
Frankly, this type of weather pattern is one I've been waiting for weeks. It's overdue. It isn't as warm as I would prefer, but I'll not complain - I'm just happy to have some sunshine with temperatures likely to see the 60s on a consistent basis to end the month of April and start the month of May.
A deep upper-level trough of low pressure is caught in between two strong upper-level ridges, locking cool weather into Plains to the Appalachians and beyond.
A much cooler air mass will expand from the northern Plains this weekend to the Deep South and into the East by Tuesday, pushing temperatures much below normal.
Intense heat and oppressive humidity surging out of the central Plains will cause severe weather from the Midwest to the Ohio Valley in the next 72 hours, followed by much cooler weather next week.
Despite the heat and humidity in the East today and a surge of intense heat and humidity coming out of the central and southern Plains for a brief period of time, cool air will dominate the pattern through the end of July from the Plains to the Appalachians.
A pattern of extremes is once again unfolding across the country over the next week, with two shots of cool air interspersed with intense heat.
Despite the heat over the central and southern Rockies this week, an amplified pattern means cool air will dominate in much of the country for the rest of July.