Monday, 11:55 A.M.
I'm looking a loop of the 12z Nov. 4 NAM surface forecasts right now, and what I'm seeing looks very much like what I was looking at during the middle part of last week! What I see is a front coming together on the Plains, with an area of low pressure tracking northeastward from the western Plains toward the Great Lakes. For a time, the precipitation shield will grow with this system, just as we saw with the one last week that took a similar path. There is likely to be some severe weather associated with it, though arguably less than we saw last week. There will be some heavy rain, particularly from the eastern Plains and Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. However, as the system moves east, it will lift and weaken, meaning areas from the central and eastern Gulf Coast right up the Eastern Seaboard into New England will get a lot less rain. Behind the storm, the weather will be quiet for a few days. That will be interrupted by a storm coming into the Northwest late Wednesday night into Thursday.
This looks remarkably like the set up we saw but a week ago, but, as you can expect, there will be some notable differences. For one, the amount of severe weather, which ended up being fairly limited in scope overall, thankfully, will be even less with this particular storm and cold front. There will be likely be a few strong thunderstorms late Wednesday and Wednesday night in deep South Texas, but not much severe. There will also be some embedded thunderstorms over the eastern Plains and mid-Mississippi Valley late tomorrow night into Wednesday that will march into the Ohio Valley ahead of the cold front, but not much of this will be severe, if any.
As we saw with last week's storm, heavy rain will fall, but I highly doubt we'll see many four-inch rain totals with this storm. While I use this graphic with a little fear and trepidation, I think it gives you an idea of what we might expect in the next three days. It's the 12z Nov. 4 NAM model total precipitation forecast fro this morning through Thursday evening:
On the cold side of the storm, there will be some snow, which there was very little of last week. Here's an early prediction of what to expect:
There will be a surge of warmth ahead of the storm, first in the Tennessee and Ohio valleys into the Great Lakes tomorrow and Wednesday, and then in the East Wednesday and Thursday. Some places will reach 70 in the East on Thursday, though it won't be as widespread as it was Friday into Saturday.
The air mass behind the front will be cooler than it was right behind last week's cold front. In other words, the day behind the front will be much cooler, plain and simple. In most cases, that means a day with below normal average, as the GFS ensembles are portraying in the Ohio and Tennessee valleys and points west on Thursday:
Similarly, in the East on Friday with the front not getting stuck this time around:
Once the storm and its cold front are gone, the weather will be generally quiet for a few days across much of the country. By then, though, another storm will blast into the Northwest wind and rain. However, unlike the one that came into the Northwest this past weekend, then subsequently dug into the central and southern Rockies over the weekend, this storm and its upper-level support should go more west-to-east, and then cross the northern Rockies and head out onto the northern Plains Thursday night and Friday, then into the Great Lakes Saturday. This will limit how much chill there will be in the pattern, and may contribute to a broader, stronger warming of the Rockies and Plains early next week.
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