Friday, 11:40 A.M.
The last weekend of June is upon us. Next weekend is the Independence Day holiday weekend, and we're fast approaching the peak of summer heat across the country on average. The normal temperatures only rise a couple of degrees between now and the third and fourth week of July, and it's not uncommon for heat waves to be in play in many parts of the country. So far this year, though, that has just not been the case I think a lot of it has to do with all of the moisture we've seen across the Ohio Valley into the northern Plains.
Just this month alone many areas from Minnesota out into the Dakotas are running two to three times normal rainfall, with some about four times average. And rain is hardly over with, either. It seems that any little excuse for a disturbance is able to produce showers and thunderstorms with relative ease. That in combination with added clouds and a jet stream across the country that just isn't promoting large areas of excessive heat is leading to no sustained heat waves.
Look, for instance, at this evening's surface weather map:
The high over the Northeast will foster a pretty nice weekend across New England into the mid-Atlantic states with a decent amount of sunshine, little to no rain, no heat, and not a lot of humidity. In contrast, the double-barreled area of low pressure from southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas up to North Dakota is helping to generate showers and thunderstorms in the central and northern Plains and Midwest. And it isn't as if there won't be any showers and thunderstorms in the northern Rockies. Even the Northwest will have its share of showers and an upper-level disturbance rolls through the region.
As we go through the weekend, there will be numerous showers and thunderstorms from the eastern Plains to the Midwest. Expect to see more showers and thunderstorms across the South and up into the Tennessee and Ohio valleys as a weak disturbance drifting northeastward pulls Gulf moisture well to the north, along with high humidity.
By the time we exit the weekend and start next week, there will a few more showers and thunderstorms over and east of the Appalachians as the high dew point air expands northeastward. As that is unfolding, a cold front will move steadily out of the northern and central Plains into the Midwest thanks to a strong storm and upper-level low rolling out of Manitoba into Ontario:
With a strong west wind aloft underneath that upper-level low, and pretty strong south to southwest breezes transporting very warm and humid air northeastward into the Midwest, severe thunderstorms are likely to erupt. And by Monday evening, the areas that have been hit hardest with rain this month will add quite a bit to their totals:
Let's hope that July brings a sufficient enough change in the weather pattern to bring drying to these areas.
A storm heading for the Midwest this afternoon and tonight, while generating snow in parts of the Midwest, will push warm air ahead of it, with little cold air behind it reaching the East.
A snow storm affecting the central Plains and Midwest into the Great Lakes this afternoon into tomorrow night will be followed by the first of two arctic outbreaks around the country before Thanksgiving.
Winter is six weeks away, and there will be a couple of signs this week of the approaching season as a storm develops on the western Plains and heads through the Great Lakes.
A warm pattern is setting up for much of the nation next week.
Tropical moisture associated with the one-time Hurricane Patricia will bring heavy rains to many areas east of the Mississippi Valley between now and Wednesday night.
Patricia, the strongest hurricane on record in the eastern Pacific, will make landfall this evening in Mexico. It will spread torrential rains into East Texas, and impact the weather all the way to the Northeast next week.