Friday, 11:30 a.m.
The latest severe weather outbreak is over, and the weather, at least for a short time, will be more behaved. It has been a very busy couple of days, though. Take a look at the severe weather reports from Wednesday morning to Thursday morning:
Note the number of tornado reports from Iowa to Ohio as the mesoscale convective complex developed and went on its rampage. That system roared to the mid-Atlantic coast by late morning, only for a new one to develop farther west and southwest, more on the fringe areas of the impact of the first one hours before:
In the wake of all this severe weather, a cool, dry air mass has quickly moved into place across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, now overtaking most of the mid-Atlantic and Northeast. With high pressure settling in over the central Appalachians tonight, it'll be clear and cool. Many places away from the big cities will be well down into the 50s tonight, if not into the 40s - a nice, refreshing break from heat and humidity.
In contrast, there's still plenty of both in the central and especially southern Plains. When you combine that with a weak upper-level disturbance drawing tropical moisture northward from eastern Mexico into central Texas, as well as as stronger feature rolling through the Prairie Provinces, and the stage is set for a couple of areas of volatile weather. Look at the 500mb forecast for early tonight:
The moisture in central and western Texas is mostly diurnal in nature. In other words, it will pulse down after dark and thin out, only to pulse up a bit tomorrow, though the overall amount tomorrow will be somewhat less than this afternoon and evening.
In contrast, the showers and thunderstorms that erupt farther north may be stronger after dark than during the afternoon hours today, particularly in parts of the Midwest. With a relatively fast flow aloft, these showers and thunderstorms will be carried downstream rather swiftly, bringing some of them into the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes late tomorrow or tomorrow night. Some of that moisture will invade the mid-Atlantic and New England Sunday, though the severe weather potential is not exceptionally high.
Overall, it remains a pattern that is fairly volatile. The severe weather risk is not as great as it was the past two days, but it will certainly be there this weekend and into the beginning of next week.
Heavy rains are exiting the Northeast this afternoon, but more excessive rains will return to the mid-Atlantic later tomorrow and Friday. Hurricane Joaquin is lurking near the Bahamas, and may make the situation worse this weekend.
The system along the Southeast coast will spread heavy rain from parts of Georgia into Virginia heading into the weekend, while most of the rest of the country is dry and warm.
It may now be autumn, but much of the country will be warmer than average for the rest of the week and into the weekend.
Fall begins one week from today, but there's still plenty of warmth to go around the rest of this week, with more to follow again next week.
Record heat blistered the East yesterday, but it is about to end. Still, another surge of very warm weather is likely next week to extend summer a little while longer.
Much above-normal warmth is in store for the next week from the Plains to the Northeast and mid-Atlantic states, while it turns much cooler throughout the Northwest.