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Joe Lundberg's Weather Blog

Finally, Severe Weather Strikes

Apr 6, 2010; 10:29 AM ET

Tuesday, 11:25 A.M.

One of the many things spring is known for is severe weather. Up to this point, the severe weather has been lacking. When the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Okla. issues severe weather watches, either tornado or severe thunderstorm watches, they number them sequentially. The outbreak of severe weather in the past 24 hours has now pushed that to watch number 55, in effect into the middle of the afternoon across parts of northern Indiana and southern Michigan. That number is typically much, much higher by this date, and it gives us clear evidence as to how quiet the severe weather season has been overall thus far.

I'm not in any way implying we're going to see the atmosphere try to make up for lost time. While that is certainly possible, my quick take on it is for the severe weather activity to be more 'typical' of what we might see in the first half of April. Over the past 24 hours, it has largely been in the form of damaging winds and large hail stretching from portions of eastern Kansas to northern Illinois and down into parts of the Virginias:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/yesterday.html

This afternoon, the activity will largely be tied to the rim of the incredible early season heat. Aside from the current severe thunderstorm threat across northern Indiana and southern Michigan, that may extend across the southern tier of New York during the next several hours, and the main risk late this afternoon into tonight will be farther west ahead of a cold front, stretching from central and eastern Oklahoma and eastern Kansas all the way up into southern Wisconsin.

As low pressure organizes over the southern Plains this afternoon, then heads toward the lower Lakes and northern Ohio Valley late tomorrow and tomorrow night, expect a strong cold front to be pulled eastward through Texas into Louisiana and Arkansas. Strong to severe thunderstorms may erupt at almost any time tomorrow into tomorrow night ahead of the front from the lower Mississippi Valley eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee valleys down into Mississippi and northern Alabama.

Heading into Thursday, the front will cross the Appalachians and head toward the East Coast, and while no official severe weather threat exists now, that is subject to change. The air mass will be warm and getting fairly humid in advance of the front by Thursday, and if the front is slow enough, it may allow some sunshine to push temperatures well into the 70s, if not the lower 80s, from parts of the eastern Carolinas up into interior southern New England, which might help fuel strong thunderstorms. The most likely place for it to happen would be from portions of Georgia northeastward into eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey.

Once the front gets to the coast, though, the severe weather threat goes quiet again few a few days. I can't see anything to get concerned about Friday, as the air mass will be relatively cool and dry west of the Appalachians back to the Mississippi Valley, and while it will be warming Friday out across the Plains back into the eastern Rockies, the Gulf of Mexico will just barely begin to open up at that point.

Even on Saturday, the next cold front will be limited to the Upper Midwest and northern Plains, while areas to the south continue to warm. I have a hard time seeing enough moisture being transported northward to that front to warrant a severe weather threat at this point.

We may have to wait until Monday or Tuesday before the risk of severe weather returns, and even then, it may be more in small areas, specifically targeted to boundaries between warm and cool air masses.

As for the warmth, wow! It will be toppling more records this afternoon from the Mississippi Valley eastward, and more will go in the East tomorrow before the clouds roll in ahead of the front to trim temperatures back a little on Thursday. Still, the cool down that follows merely sends a cool shot down the Plains and across the Mississippi Valley to the Southeast for a couple of days. By Friday temperatures will be on the rebound in the central and northern Plains. This warming will expand into the Midwest Saturday, and then farther downstream into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Sunday, and into the Northeast and mid-Atlantic states by the beginning of next week.

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