Thursday, 12:10 p.m.
This storm is clearly living up to the advance hype it got: a significant ice storm over northern sections of the Deep South into parts of the Southeast. Heavy snow from portions of northeastern Georgia and upstate South Carolina all the way to New England. And that snow has become a wind-driven rain along the coastal plain, with some of the wind gust over 40 miles an hour, all associated with low pressure that is just east of the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay at this hour.
The storm will deepen steadily as it moves north-northeastward this afternoon and tonight, crossing southeastern New England tonight, then heading for down east Maine later tomorrow. That is a track that is clearly far enough west that warm air is making big strides north and west of the I-95 corridor, changing the snow to sleet, freezing rain, rain and drizzle in central and eastern Maryland, southeastern Pennsylvania and much of New Jersey. That same process will take place over most of Connecticut, all of Rhode Island, central and eastern Massachusetts, southeastern New Hampshire and coastal Maine. This changeover is made more remarkable when you consider the fact it was so brutally cold just before the storm!
Even where there is a changeover, the snow will come down ferociously this afternoon across interior New England. Then the mixed precipitation will largely change to a cold, wind-driven rain, followed by a dry tongue that all but shuts off the precipitation, then the backlash that could next a couple of inches from the interior mid-Atlantic this evening all the way up into eastern New England late tonight and early tomorrow.
Then, it's over. The storm is gone, and it will be time to clean things up and try to get back to normal. But wait! There's ANOTHER storm right behind the first one, only this one will come out of the northern Plains and across the Mississippi Valley into the Ohio and Tennessee valleys tomorrow. Here's a peek at the 12z Feb. 13 NAM surface forecast for tomorrow evening:
A new low will have formed over eastern Kentucky, bringing 1-3 inches of snow through portions of Kentucky and northern and eastern Tennessee. There may be as much as 6 inches of snow in the central and southern Appalachians tomorrow night, and snowflakes will again fly across parts of Alabama, Georgia and the Carolinas up into Virginia!
The storm will blow up Saturday after moving off the coast, and it bring snow away from the mid-Atlantic in the morning, but up to a few inches of snow will fall Saturday into Saturday night across southern and eastern New England from this second storm. And it will be all snow in these areas. This is the GFS 24-hour precipitation forecast from Friday night through the end of the day Saturday:
This second storm pulls arctic air back into the East, and it will stay through Monday before retreating. Even then, though, there will be some issues with its retreat. The next storm coming along Monday into Tuesday from the northern Plains to New England will pull milder air, but the cold air won't be able to get out of the way fast enough, so expect some snow and ice before it changes to rain.
THEN we'll get a nice teaser of spring late next week with 50s and 60s and widespread melting!
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