Monday, 11:35 a.m.
My time is short, but the nuts and bolts of this week's forecast are NOT about Debby, the weakened tropical storm that is rolling around aimlessly at the moment off the coast of the Florida Panhandle. It is beginning to move slowly northeastward and should drift in that general east or northeast direction over the next couple of days, continuing to lash the Florida Peninsula with heavy rain and gusty winds.
The presence of Debby, however, is helping have an impact on the current weather and the weather to come, specifically as it relates to heat. Look at the upper-level flow pattern today:
The large-scale features are very impressive! The deepening trough coming into the East, though, is going to be blunted a bit by all of the heat being thrown off Debby to the north. That heat is manifesting itself in record or near-record heat across the South and into the eastern Rockies. Look at the highs from Sunday:
The incredible heat will easily expand eastward this week, faster than I had thought last week. And what heat it is going to be. Look at the latest NAM projected 850mb temperatures for Thursday evening:
The air mass that promoted the mid- to upper 90s kind of heat in the mid-Atlantic into portions of New England last Wednesday through Friday had 850mb temperatures of +21C or maybe +22C. This has +15 and higher for places like Chicago, St. Louis, and Columbus, and it is expanding rapidly eastward. That may well mean temperatures over 100 over a LARGE area of the country by Thursday. The NAM 2-meter temperature forecast concurs:
This could just obliterate records this week, as the heat will return to the East by Friday and linger into Saturday before ANY kind of cooling can take place, and even then, it may be tough to get it back to normal for a while. In other words, you might want to start preparing now for a run of just unrelenting heat and probably some oppressive humidity in the coming days, if it hasn't already started for you!
More warmth, more moisture and a number of upper-level disturbances will contribute to widespread active weather around the country this weekend.
A blast of heat blasted across the Plains into the Midwest Tuesday, torching many records along the way. The heat will fade today as it reaches the mid-Atlantic.
From record cold to record heat, a dramatic turnaround is underway in the weather across the country.
After a long period of time with wave after wave of arctic blasts coming out of Alaska and western Canada, there will finally be an arctic disconnect later this week and this weekend, meaning a warmer pattern going forward for a time.
The next 72 hours will be wet from the southern Plains to the Northeast. Following a strong cold front, it will turn much cooler with a danger of frost Sunday night and again Monday night from the Midwest to the interior mid-Atlantic and Northeast.
The persistently cold weather pattern for much of the spring season will repeat itself this weekend as another strong cold front ushers a very chilly air mass into the Plains and to the East Coast this weekend and early next week.