Monday, 11:45 a.m.
The large precipitation deficit in Texas, particularly in the central and eastern sections of the state, has been slowly but surely trimmed in recent months. Some areas picked up several inches of rain around Houston late last week and into early Saturday morning, and still another upper-level disturbance is heading out of eastern New Mexico and western Texas today that will move eastward across the state tonight and tomorrow and generate more showers and thunderstorms. Look at the projected rainfall totals from this morning through tomorrow evening:
In general, that won't be enough to cause some flooding, and there won't be a lot of severe weather, either.
There will also be some rain in the East. This will come via a couple of different systems, the biggest of which is more of an upper-level trough rather than a strong surface storm coming through the region. The second feature will be a cold front coming through the Great Lakes tomorrow night, then into the Northeast Wednesday, before it passes off the New England and mid-Atlantic coasts tomorrow night. Here's the same (NAM) model projected precipitation from this morning through Wednesday night (a longer time loop than for the system coming through Texas):
You can see from that image that a lot of the truly heavy rain will be off the coast. That said, areas in and east of the Appalachians from West Virginia and western Virginia into New England stand the chance of enough rain to cause some flooding.
Once these features clear the deck, so to speak, then some very nice weather will be in play across much of the Plains and Mississippi Valley to the East Coast. I did some work in the garden yesterday and will try to finish it up in between raindrops this afternoon, a sure sign we've managed to survive the late-season frosts and freezes. I even noticed a lot of small berries starting to come out on the black raspberry vines (bushes? plants? I'm not sure what you call them!). With all of this rain, I can almost hear the sounds of lawnmowers all around the neighborhood later this week into this weekend!
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