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    An Uneasy Quiet the Rest of the Week

    11/13/2012, 7:14:42 AM

    Tuesday, 11:15 a.m.

    A cold front continues pressing off the New England coast this morning and has all but cleared the Outer Banks of North Carolina as of late morning. The air mass behind the front is much cooler, with temperatures a solid 10 degrees below normal across much of the South, and a good five to 10 below average farther north. Sprawling high pressure over the Mississippi Valley will move eastward in the next 24 hours, bringing the core of the chill through the Southeast and into the mid-Atlantic states.

    The rain that is lingering behind the front in the East will fade under the cover of darkness tonight as the upper-level support for it gradually lifts out to the north and east. What's left behind is a very quiet weather pattern in most of the country. Here's the latest (12z Tuesday) NAM surface pressure forecast for tomorrow evening, along with the expected precipitation from the preceding 6-hour period:

    There's just not much out there! What I do see is a moisture-starved, upper-level feature sliding across Texas with a lot of mid- and high-level clouds tied to it, but virtually no rain. That feature will move eastward tonight and will bring a fair amount of clouds across the eastern Gulf Coast region tomorrow and tomorrow night, where there can be some showers.

    A similar upper-level disturbance will move out of the northern Plains this afternoon and across the Midwest into the Great Lakes tonight. Much like its counterpart farther south, there will be lots of clouds associated with it, but virtually no precipitation. Right behind that feature is still another feature dragging clouds into the Northwest, with not much more than spotty showers or mountain snow showers. Aside from all of these rather innocuous looking features, there's just not much in the wave of active weather. For now.

    It continues Thursday, too. Here's the same 12z Tuesday NAM surface forecast for Thursday evening:

    Even Friday evening, it just doesn't look very stormy:

    What you have here is a setup where the really cold air that drilled into the West this past weekend will have moderated quite a bit by week's end in the South and in the East, but with a baggy trough in place over the Southeast, if not the makings of an upper-level low, it is not a situation conducive for much warming. And at the surface, there will be a definite east to northeast wind blowing in off the Atlantic along much of the Eastern Seaboard, leading a cool, marine laced environment late in the week.

    Looking at the bigger picture, the main jet stream will have retreated to the north in Canada, allowing it to warm steadily across the western half of the country and into the Plains. Not tremendous warming, mind you, but enough to notice.

    Yet I find it to be an 'uneasy' quiet. Yesterday I posted on my worries about another strong storm trying to form off the East Coast this weekend and lingering off the coast into the middle of Thanksgiving week. If you examine the 0z model suite, it would suggest the storm is still on the radar screen, but that perhaps that storm would be farther offshore than what they were suggesting 24 hours ago, and maybe even weaker, too.

    Does this mean the storm is not going to happen? I'm not at all suggesting that. Indeed, I believe wholeheartedly there will be a storm. It's where the storm will track that is in question, along with the strength of that storm and its speed of movement. All of those questions remain unanswered at this point. Once they become more certain, then one can ascertain the impact of the storm along the East Coast from the Carolinas to New England.

    Regardless, it should remain cool in the Southeast into next week, as well as across the mid-Atlantic. Meanwhile, on the other side of the continent, a storm in the northeast Pacific will send a front into the Northwest Friday night and Saturday, bringing a good slug of rain inland with it. That is likely to be the start of a stormy and very wet period from central California to Washington next week.

    The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of AccuWeather, Inc. or AccuWeather.com


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