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After Tomorrow, Big Storms Lacking in the Pattern

Jan 26, 2012; 11:03 AM ET

Thursday, 11:30 a.m.

Severe weather stuck in the South Wednesday into Wednesday night as a storm developing over Texas moved slowly northeastward. Among the severe weather reports were some tornadoes:

Ahead of this storm, dew point temperatures are in the mid-60s across southern Alabama, southern Georgia and coastal South Carolina and into the middle and upper 50s up into the Tennessee Valley. This is helping to fuel an intense line of thunderstorms that is marching across western Alabama and into the western Florida Panhandle. Along with the threat of severe weather will be the risk of flash flooding. That was a big issue yesterday into last night over Southeast Texas and into parts of Louisiana.

This low will move up west of the Appalachians toward upstate New York, so even though there has been some snow and ice on the front side of this event across parts of northern Ohio and northern Pennsylvania on north, this will still largely be a massive rain storm with some severe weather as well. Between now and sundown tomorrow, some places pick well over an inch of rain, and some of those thunderstorms can bring about over 2 inches of rain in a hurry. The 12z NAM 36-hour precipitation projections:

After the storm exits the Northeast tomorrow night, things will quiet down across the country for a while. Instead, we'll turn our attention to a series of much weaker storms, or storms with a lot less moisture to work with.

The first of these will come across the northern Plains tomorrow, spreading a little snow out of Wyoming and Colorado and into Nebraska and the Dakotas. The snow will become a little more concentrated tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night as it moves across portions of Iowa and Minnesota into Wisconsin and Illinois before moving on into Michigan and Indiana tomorrow night. As storms go, this won't be a big one, with most snow accumulations generally in the inch or two inches category. From there, some snow can be expected across Ohio into northern and western Pennsylvania into upstate New York on Saturday, though the farther south you go, the more you run the risk of that snow either melting, or falling initially as rain.

A second upper-level trough will slide through the Midwest Saturday night and across the Ohio Valley toward the mid-Atlantic on Sunday. Again, there will be some fitful bursts of snow with this feature, but when it is all added up, it will be hard to see more than an inch or two of snow anywhere from the Midwest through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley into the East and Northeast. The possible exception to that could be areas in the central and northern Appalachians and downwind of lakes Erie and Ontario, where upslope conditions and some lake effect could push snow totals past several inches.

Behind that, the next storm will bring precipitation to western Washington and northwest Oregon over time on Sunday. The storm itself will move into British Columbia, but it will push a cold front into the Northwest, with the rain and mountain snows tapering to some showers Sunday night in the wake of the front.

This very same feature will reorganize east of the Rockies and over North Dakota late Monday and Monday night. It will take until Tuesday before we get to see the precipitation show up in a meaningful way, but that should show up over parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes. Some of it will be snow, and to the south, a little rain. Across the Ohio Valley and middle Mississippi Valley down into the southern Plains, it will result in scattered rain, with little, if any, severe weather this time around. By the time we get to Wednesday, that storm will be bypassing northern New England, with some snow in the mountains of northern New England and upstate New York and a little rain farther south across the Eastern Seaboard.

Notice that through it all I'm avoiding any mention of snowstorms and cold, arctic air. Why? Because neither will be present. Much like most of the winter to date, there is little arctic air to be had, and true winter snowstorms that we've come to know and love just aren't there. And that is very unlikely into early February.

The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of AccuWeather, Inc. or AccuWeather.com

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