Wednesday, 11:35 a.m.
The big storm has split into two pieces overnight, as expected, with one center moving up the Connecticut River Valley at this hour and the trailing low moving up through eastern North Carolina. The latest surface pressure analysis clearly shows the separation between the two:
Ahead of these two low pressure centers, the air is tropical, with 60s now showing up in northeastern Massachusetts and 50s in central Maine. That kind of warmth is being propelled northward by strong southerly winds gusting to 40 and 50 miles an hour! Along with that, rain and lots of it. Oh, there has been some snow on the western flank of the storm, as parts of eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania picked up 3 to 6 inches of snow, locally 10 inches. And there can still be a little burst of snow this afternoon and evening as an upper-level disturbance, the 'caboose' to this whole mess, pulls cold air over the Appalachians and squeezes out the last of the moisture before drying quickly moves in from the west.
The bigger headache could well be a flash freeze that occurs early tonight as temperatures drop below freezing before things dry out completely. By morning, though, all will be quiet. In fact, even the lake-effect snows that are relatively impressive now over the western and northern Great Lakes will die off. That means Thanksgiving Day will be pretty dry in most of the nation. Look at the 12-hour precipitation forecast from the latest GFS run from 12z tomorrow to 0z tomorrow evening:
Not very impressive! There will be a little snow tonight into tomorrow from northern Minnesota to Michigan and extreme western New York state, with a few places getting more than an inch. And there can be a couple of showers in the onshore flow along the East Coast of Florida. There might even be a couple of showers skirting the Northwest coast, but that might just be a stretch. Otherwise, the weather will be quiet on Thanksgiving Day. And cold!
It will stay cold in the East right into Black Friday (now starting in the evening hours of Thanksgiving Day for some dumb reason). High pressure will be located in two areas - one over the central and southern Appalachians and a second one moving by the northern Great Lakes in the wake of the disturbance passing those areas tomorrow. The projected temperature anomalies Friday:
The northern high will build into upstate New York and New England late Friday night and Saturday to reinforce the cold in the Northeast, while there is at least the beginning of some moderation in the Southeast and even more so in the Deep South.
Really, the next big storm to affect the weather in the country won't even be a direct hit on the U.S., but more of strike on British Columbia Saturday, spreading some rain into the Northwest this weekend. The heaviest rains from that will probably impact western Washington into northwest Oregon sometime Sunday, while the Southwest remains nice and dry.
Warmth will expand from the Gulf Coast into the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic states by Memorial Day, but the wet and stormy weather will persist in the Plains, and expand across the Mississippi Valley.
Chilly, wet weather will morph into a warm, humid pattern later this weekend into next week, one that will remain unsettled, especially in the Plains and Mississippi Valley.
Severe thunderstorms will erupt over West Texas late tonight and tonight, but they'll become more widespread over a larger percentage of the Plains states later tomorrow and Saturday.
After a brief cool spell, much of the country from the Plains on east will turn warmer Friday through Sunday, but there will also be more clouds, showers and thunderstorms around as well.