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A Milder Pattern, But Don't Rule Out Snow

Jan 19, 2012; 6:13 AM ET

Thursday, 6:50 a.m.

Yes, this is an unusual time for a post for me, as I'm normally in the middle of my very busy and hectic radio schedule all the way into the 10 o'clock hour. But I'm playing so hurt today that I had to give up that part of my schedule. It's hard to carry on an on-air conversation when nothing but squeaks are emanating from the voice box. A special note of thanks to my comrades here at AccuWeather.com, specifically Krissy, Dan, and Danielle who have stepped in on very short notice to fill that void, as well as pick up the slack for a couple of others who have been unable to make it in today due to illness. What voice I did have yesterday was kinda of a raspy, Barry White voice. While people could clearly hear the struggles I was having, they did enjoy that rather 'sexy' tone to it, if you'll pardon the express. Today, there's just nothing but high pitched squeaks and squawks - not good when that's a big part of your living!

Enough about my ailments. On to the pattern. The title says it all. If you look at pretty much every piece of model guidance you can get your hands on, after the next couple of days, we're going right back into a balmy weather pattern across the vast majority of the country. Here are the GFS ensemble seven-day means for next week:

That's pretty well supported by the European weeklies, and there's plenty of reason to go with that idea. Just look at how the polar vortex that is now over Canada retreats to Alaska in the coming days:

Then, if you go forward to Thursday morning, you'll see a strong ridge along the West Coast, with a very strong Pacific jet across the North Pacific just flooding the middle of the country with mild air:

All that aside, it will snow in this pattern, and not just once. Now I'm not talking about a typical mid-winter snowstorm that buries large sections of the country with a foot or more of heavy snow, but in a winter that has seen so little snow, even a couple or a few inches can seem like a big thing.

The first two of these snow 'events' will come with the arctic air still in the mix. It's snowing lightly right now in northern Illinois along the leading edge of another surge of arctic air, arguably colder across the Dakotas and Midwest that what preceded it yesterday. This will not be a prolific snow maker for most, generally a coating to an inch or two across the northern Ohio Valley and the Lakes region:

While it holds off in the mid-Atlantic and New England today, it will increase a bit tonight and tomorrow morning in parts of New England, especially Maine:

In parts of Maine, a quick 3 to perhaps 6 inches may accumulate.

Behind that feature is a somewhat stronger one, bringing snow out of Montana into parts of the Dakotas later this afternoon and tonight. The snow will impact the southern half of Minnesota,, much of Iowa, and at least the southern half of Wisconsin into northern Illinois tomorrow into tomorrow night, then it will spread eastward across northern Pennsylvania and New York state into New England later tomorrow night into Saturday. That system will have more moisture to work with, and it will also be attempting to bring warmer to the attack of the existing arctic air mass. Here's the 0z NAM 24-hour precipitation forecast from 6z Saturday to 6z Sunday:

Where that's all snow, that could mean 4 to 8 inches of snow in the Poconos over to eastern Massachusetts. Southernmost New England, Long Island, New York City, and the southern half of Pennsylvania are apt to see some changeover at some point during the storm on Saturday.

The next potential snow maker will be late Sunday and Sunday night into Monday morning, but largely affecting the Dakotas and Minnesota into parts of Wisconsin. Again, it won't be a big storm, but it will snow some, and do some expansion of the snow cover in those areas. And even though the air mass behind that storm will hardly be considered arctic in light of what is in place now, it should be cold enough for a little lake effect snow for a time.

Still another storm will track from the southern Plains toward the Northeast later next week. At this time of year, you could normally take that to the bank for snow on the northwest flank of the storm, if not ahead of it. But without any meaningful cold air, that will be harder to accomplish. Still, some snow should be seen across the Midwest and Great Lakes into the high ground of upstate New York and northern New England at the very least, while everyone else has to deal with more rain.

That will pretty much get us to the end of January, and a trend toward colder, or, should I say, 'less warm' is imminent heading into February. What that means in terms of actual temperatures and the potential for more snow remains to be seen.

The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of AccuWeather, Inc. or AccuWeather.com