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The most Sophisticated Climate Study ever done for a City

June 22, 2012; 12:48 AM

New groundbreaking research from UCLA shows that climate change will cause temperatures in the Los Angeles region to increase an average of 3 to 5 degrees F. by the middle of this century (2041-2060).

The report, which is the most sophisticated regional climate study ever undertaken was led by UCLA climate expert Alex Hall, who is an associate professor in UCLA's Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences who is also a lead author on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports.

"These figures are only annual averages, and the day-to-day increase in temperatures will vary," said Hall.

Hall's research team downsized a total of 22 global climate models to local levels. Each model had slightly different assumptions about how to predict climate change or factors like future greenhouse gas emissions, according to the UCLA newsroom.

The team then analyzed the results and integrated them into an ensemble projection to create the forecast for the entire region.

From UCLA........

"We looked not only at a business-as-usual scenario where greenhouse gas emissions continue but also at a scenario where emissions are curtailed," Hall said. "Even if we drastically cut pollution worldwide, there will still be quite a bit of warming in Los Angeles. I was a little taken aback by how much warming remains, no matter how aggressively we cut back. It was sobering."

The results also show a tripling of the number of extremely hot days in the downtown area and quadrupling the number in the valleys and at high elevations by mid-century.

Warming along the coastal areas of southern California are projected to be less than that of the interior valleys and mountains due to the high heat capacity of water. Water can absorb a lot of energy without changing temperature very much, according to the report.

You can see the temperature forecast details with maps on C-Change.LA

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