Despite the most recent slowdown in global warming, a new study from NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) shows that the planet will continue to warm this century as projected by earlier estimates.
NASA computer animation showing projected changes in temperatures and precipitation through the end of this century. Video courtesy of YouTube.
Drew Shindell, a climatologist at NASA's GISS has developed a new, more detailed calculation of the Earth's sensitivity to greenhouse gas emissions and other factors such as aerosols.
Shindell found that the Earth is more is more sensitive to these factors than earlier estimates, including those from the latest IPCC report.
Shindell's paper, which was recently published in the journal Nature Climate Change, focuses on improving our understanding of how aerosols impact the northern Hemispheric climate.
Key excerpts from the NASA report.
While multiple studies have shown the Northern Hemisphere plays a stronger role than the Southern Hemisphere in transient climate change, this had not been included in calculations of the effect of atmospheric aerosols on climate sensitivity. Prior to Shindell's work, such calculations had assumed aerosol impacts were uniform around the globe.
This difference means previous studies have underestimated the cooling effect of aerosols. When corrected, the range of likely warming based on surface temperature observations is in line with earlier estimates, despite the recent slowdown.
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