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Global Warming Trend over last 16 Years Greatly Underestimated, according to New Method

February 24, 2014; 7:48 AM ET

A validated, hybrid method of measuring global temperatures has been developed this year, which fills in the large gaps of missing temperatures by using satellite data.

This new method shows that the Met Office in the UK, which uses the HadCRUT4 data base for global temperatures, greatly underestimated the global warming trend over the past 16 years by as much as two-and-a-half times.

Kevin Cowtan explains the new method and the results in the short video below. Courtesy of the Kevin Cowtan of the University of York and YouTube.

However, this correction still ends up less than one-tenth of a degree and does not change the long-term trend of global warming.

Currently, NASA GISS fills in the gaps by interpolation, while NOAA and HadCRUT4 just ignore the missing regions all together.

The Cowtan & Way method uses the HadCRUT4 global temperature data set and then interpolates the data-poor regions such as the Arctic by using satellite data.

The chart below shows the top 5 warmest years of the 4 methods. Image courtesy RealClimate.org

The Cowtan & Way interpolation of the last 40+ years of global temperatures below clearly shows the upward trend of temperature since the warm El Nino of 1998. Actually, 2013 was warmer than 1998. Image courtesy of RealClimate.org and Kevin Cowtan from the University of York.

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For additional information on this improved method you can read the RealClimate.org article.

There is also an excellent summary directly from Kevin Cowtan and Robert Way.

The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of AccuWeather, Inc. or AccuWeather.com

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