Global Climate Change Blog
Diminishing Solar Output will have little Impact on Greenhouse Warming
Jan 25, 2012; 11:47 AM ET
During the 20th Century solar activity increased to a ‘grand maximum' and recent studies have suggested this level of activity is at or nearing its end, according to the University of Reading Press release.
Solar output will likely decrease up to the start of the next century, but this reduction will only cause a drop of 0.08 celsius in global temperature, according to the University of Reading and the UK's Met Office report.
Image of the sun from earlier today. Image courtesy of NASA.
This reduction will not even come close to offsetting the expected increase of 2.5 celsius over the same period due to the emissions of greenhouse gases. (The 2.5 celsius forecast is based on the IPCC's B2 scenario for greenhouse gas emissions that does not involve efforts to mitigate emissions)
Latest sun spot cycle forecast as of January 2012. Courtesy NASA.
Excerpts from the press release.....
Gareth Jones, a climate change detection scientist with the Met Office, said: "This research shows that the most likely change in the Sun's output will not have a big impact on global temperatures or do much to slow the warming we expect from greenhouse gases.
"It's important to note this study is based on a single climate model, rather than multiple models which would capture more of the uncertainties in the climate system."
The study also showed that if solar output reduced below that seen in the Maunder Minimum - a period between 1645 and 1715 when solar activity was at its lowest observed level - the global temperature reduction would only be 0.13C.
The probability of activity dropping as low as the Maunder Minimum - or indeed returning to the high activity of the 20th Century - is about 8%.
The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of AccuWeather, Inc. or AccuWeather.com
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