My thoughts on the weekend storm from yesterdays posting has not changed a lot, but there are some minor changes. That storm is now west of Oregon and moving south. By the way, it is nice to see GOES 15 back up and running this afternoon.
Here are the changes from yesterday:
-A little slower arrival time of the rain for interior central and all of Southern California. Models are pretty close now. Looks like rain arrives in interior central California in the first few hours after sunrise Sunday and the same goes for places like Ventura county. Rain should arrive in the morning across Los Angeles county and spread east and south, arriving no later than early afternoon southern Orange County to San Diego county and the Inland Empire.
-Snow levels will not be quite as low as thought yesterday though all the ski resorts should still pick up the amount of snow I said. Snow level in the Sierra will start out around 5,000 to 5,500 feet then drop to 4,000 feet at night (after the heaviest precipitation has moved away). In Southern California, the snow level starts out at 6,000 feet or a little higher, then drops sown to 4,500 to 5,000 feet at night. This should mean no travel problems over the Southern California passes.
-The storm is mostly over Monday though a couple of morning showers linger over the Sierra, San Diego county and north-facing mountain slopes in Southern California.
NASCAR is in Southern California this weekend at the Auto Club Speedway in Fontana. Races Friday night and Saturday will be fine. But the big race on Sunday, The Auto Club 400, is going to run into wet weather problems. Of this I have no doubt, the race starts at noon. It will be close but there is the chance it may not be raining right at noon. But it will start to rain during the race and hard enough to cause some major headaches for race officials.
A prolonged rain-free pattern is setting in.
By this time in 1998 there was twice as much rain that had occurred to date compared to 2015-2016.
Could an unusual El Nino precipitation pattern be as simple as looking at the state of water temperatures?
One thing that I find interesting is that the pattern since fall has not been your typical El Nino storm pattern.
There are signs of a possible stormier pattern beginning the week of Jan. 18.
The cumulative effect of the series of storms will mean flooding, mudslides and debris flows are going to be a problems for much of the week