A closed low is out in the east-central Pacific at about 40N, 142W. This low will not move a lot over the next three days. It does wobble closer to the coast but only enough maybe to bring a little rain to the northwest California and western Oregon coastal areas Sunday and Monday.
But the models all agree that eventually the low will be ejected to the east Tuesday and Wednesday and will move inland across California Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. In fact, what is so scary about this long-range forecast is how much the models agree. This has not been the case over the last couple of months, but this uncharacteristic agreement lends itself to a higher degree of confidence than is normal. Here is what the GFS has for the 500 mb pattern next Wednesday morning.
Notice on the above map another closed low farther out in the Pacific. That feature both the GFS and European brings toward California later Thursday through Friday. Here is the GFS for midday Friday.
This is being portrayed as a strong, wetter and colder storm than the first and could have a major impact on a large area the later portions of next week.
Usually by this time of year, the rainy season is starting to let up in California. However, this year, it seems, the last few weeks through next week look more like the start of the rainy season.
Most every city deficit is at least one full year of normal rainfall behind, some cities are closer to two years.
At 1075 feet cuts in water deliveries would take place for Nevada and Arizona, including the huge tourist destination of the Las Vegas Valley
With approximately 1.6 million acres burned so far this is about 600,000 acres less than last year
Within the three-state area of Washington, Oregon and Idaho, there are 21 large fire incidents ongoing.
The water level on this massive reservoir had never been lower than what was reached on July 9.
It has been pretty hot of late in the interior Northwest but even hotter weather looks likely by Sunday and Monday.