As I talked about late last week, a stormier weather pattern will evolve this week in California and will continue through the weekend.
The first of these storms is centered out around 145 W with its cold front just inside of 140 W.
This is the first storm that will come in, spreading rain across California Wednesday and Wednesday night. The greatest support for the cold front will be northern to parts of central California, and that is where the greatest amount of rain will be. As the front moves into Southern California, rain amounts will be lighter and mainly occur from late Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Storm two will arrive Thursday in northern California and will spread rain down to just south of the Bay Area and mainly north of the San Joaquin Valley before the front stalls. Storm three will quickly follow the second one on Friday and again will keep much of the rain in the northern third of California. The European does spread rain somewhat farther south than the GFS onto parts of the Central Coast and northern sections of the San Joaquin Valley.
The fourth and final storm will occur over the weekend and, for central and Southern California, will be the heaviest precipitation producer.
When it is all said and done, here is how much rain the GFS is predicting.
In general, 2 to 4 inches of rain is likely in the north and some upslope areas to central California. Rainfall will taper off farther south. I do believe that the model is somewhat underdone in Southern California, especially south of the Los Angeles Basin. Early indications are to expect totals of 0.75 to 1.25 inches around the Los Angeles area tapering to 0.30 to 0.60 of an inch in San Diego.
These are rather warm storms, especially the first three. So snow levels are going to be high in the Sierra, generally above 7,500 feet. The last storm can see storm levels lowering to maybe 6,000 feet in the north to 7,000 feet in the south.
As of the end of June there had been no named storms in the Eastern Pacific basin.
This is some serious and dangerous heat. Outdoor activity is just not at all recommended during the daytime.
A strong ridge of high pressure in the West brings the highest heat of the season so far to a large area.
Combine the cold with the wind and some precipitation and there is a real danger of hypothermia.
Any shower and thunderstorm can contain heavy downpours, heavy enough to cause temporary, low-lying ponding.
According to all long-range models, the warmest area in North America compared to average will be over the Northwest.