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Reversal of Fortunes for Lake Mead

Jan 27, 2012; 1:21 PM ET

I have documented many times in this blog in the last month the lack of rain and snow across the Southwest U.S. watershed this winter and its seriousness. I have had one person question why am I being so pessimistic especially since there was a change in the weather coming (from two weeks ago). Some of you may remember this exchange. There was a nice round of precipitation a week ago in the Colorado River Watershed and also in California. However, that has proved to be the exception and not the rule. This is no surprise to me as I have been saying all along the El Nino pattern we have been in would remain all winter and the chance was quite high that the "pattern change" was only temporary. And indeed we are right back into the same kind of weather pattern now that has kept precipitation well below normal for December and much of January.

Current models and all long-range models continue to show below to much below precipitation for the rest of the winter from central California on east to Utah and south to Arizona. In the next 10 days, I see no precipitation of importance in this area as the storm track remains too far north.

To show how this is already affecting the important water supply in this part of the country here are some statistics on the biggest water source in the Southwest, Lake Mead. From an article in the Las Vegas review Journal online, and written by Henry Brean, here are some statistics for you.

1-Lake Mead has risen 50 feet since its low water mark back in November 2010 thanks mainly to the snow abundance in 2011.

2-The U.S Bureau of Reclamation back in December forecast another 11-foot rise over the next year.

3-Due to the lack of snow and rain this winter over the watershed, projections now are for a 13-foot drop in the lake level in the next year, a 25-foot difference in the projection.

4-This is equal to 2.45 million acre feet of water lost because of this year's dry weather, as much water as the Vegas Valley uses in a decade. 1 acre foot of water=316,000 gallons.

The problem may be even worse than the current projections. The Bureau of Reclamation estimate may have been based on perhaps a somewhat stormier rest of the winter. If that does not happen, and it may very well won't, then even the current estimates are too optimistic. What a reversal of fortune in one year for Lake Mead!

Of course, more than Lake Mead is being impacted. All reservoirs across California, Arizona and Utah are being affected. While it may seem to be nice to have day after day of no rain and snow and sunshine to many, the farmers don't agree. In the end, even the urban water user can be greatly affected by water restrictions returning along with water rate price increases.

The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of AccuWeather, Inc. or AccuWeather.com

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More Ken Clark

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  • Lake Mead Water Levels Dropping

    Apr 27, 2012; 12:40 PM ET

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  • Another Late-Season Storm at Midweek

    Apr 23, 2012; 12:28 PM ET

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  • Huge Temperature Gradient

    Apr 20, 2012; 12:36 PM ET

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  • Summerlike Weather by Weeks End

    Apr 16, 2012; 12:45 PM ET

    This ridge will likely bring well above-normal temperatures by Friday into the weekend for areas away from the Pacific waters.

  • Two California Late-Season Storms

    Apr 10, 2012; 12:36 PM ET

    some welcomed rainfall levels of between 1/2 to 1 inch over central California with nearly the same amounts around the Los Angeles Basin.

  • Storms Return Next Week

    Apr 6, 2012; 12:42 PM ET

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About This Blog

Ken Clark
Ken Clark's Western U.S. weather blog tackles daily weather events with commentary from one of the most experienced and trusted Western U.S. weather experts.

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