The first day of the Eastern Pacific Tropical Season gives us the first tropical storm of the season.
A tropical depression formed Wednesday morning, and as it has been tracking west-northwest today, it has become better organized. As of 2 PDT Wednesday afternoon, we officially have the first tropical storm named Alvin.
Located far south of Acapulco, Mexico, it clearly can be seen on satellite pictures Wednesday afternoon near 9N and 104.5W.
It also, historically, is in the usual place for development in the 10-day period between May 10 and 20 as shown by this graphic.
Alvin will continue to move around an area of high pressure to the north for the next several days, re-curving some in later time periods. However, it will be far away from any land mass over the next four to five days, but it has a better than even chance of becoming a hurricane over the next day or two.
This hurricane season probably will be a little more active than normal. Normals are for 15 named storms, eight hurricanes and four major hurricanes. I think that we will have 17 to 18 named storms, 10 hurricanes and five major storms. Of more importance than these numbers are how many will threaten land. We can have a couple dozen hurricanes, but if they are all fish (staying out over the water), it really matters little. I am thinking that several of these storms will threaten parts of western Mexico this season, including the popular southern Baja Peninsula.
This storm is going to bring about accumulating snow to places that don’t see it often.
In the citrus areas from the San Joaquin Valley to northern Ventura County expect a hard freeze in most area
a well established spoke of energy rotated northeast and is bringing some areas a LOT more rain than the sprinkle or light shower I predicted.
It looks like the Cascades of Washington will get some important snow Sunday and Monday.
Southern California looks like it will get wet Thanksgiving and Black Friday.
The storm dropping south off the southern California coast tonight and parked nearly stationary Friday into Saturday brings a high chance of flooding problems