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Latest Sierra Snow Analysis is Ugly/Pattern Change?

Jan 10, 2012; 1:28 PM ET

The latest Sierra snow analysis is in, and it is truly ugly. But if you live in the Sierra, or have wanted to ski in this part of the country, you don't need this latest report to tell you it is BAD.

So here is the ugly truth.

Average snow pack is down to 14 percent of normal, from 19 percent last week. Another chart shows how this year (pink line) compares to last year (green line) and average (black line). All plots are down around the dry 1976-1977 winter, mostly below that winter at this point in the season.

Elsewhere around the West, the snow situation is worse than last week. Here is the departure from normal of the snow depth with the oranges and reds being below normal.

As I pointed out yesterday, the hope of anything important the rest of the week is about nil. I talked about a closed low that was going to form off the coast of northern California today that would remain offshore. In reality, it has formed much farther west today than many models had and will stay well offshore into Saturday. Ahead of it, the ridge holds strong. The models do bring the low east but at far different time and places. It really doesn't matter all that much for the snow pack since no matter where this low moves and when it travels through it will not bring any precipitation that would put a dent in the numbers above.

Now to brighten the spirits of you some. It does seem that the models in the very long range are all coming into saying that a change in the pattern may indeed be in the offering toward the later half of next week. Both the GFS and European are showing a much more zonal flow in the central and eastern Pacific than I have seen in some time. This will certainly open the door for stormier weather from northern California on north and could even mean precipitation gets farther south if this happens. The usual disclaimer applies when talking about a 10+ day forecast. Let's not put all our eggs in that basket just yet, but it is the first optimistic sign that the mega ridge may go away. Cross your fingers!

The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of AccuWeather, Inc. or AccuWeather.com

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    Apr 16, 2012; 12:45 PM ET

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  • Storms Return Next Week

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About This Blog

Ken Clark
Ken Clark's Western U.S. weather blog tackles daily weather events with commentary from one of the most experienced and trusted Western U.S. weather experts.

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