Is it ever too early to talk about the next winter season in the West? Because water supplies and recreational winter sports depend so greatly on the economy, the answer has to be no, it is never to early. So let's have a look at what it may be looking like down the line.
As most know, we were in a La Nina through the fall and much of the winter months but with a trend the ENSO neutral by late winter and spring. This may be one reason we had the late surge in precipitation in California to the central Great Basin.
Models all are pretty close in agreement right now through the summer that ENSO-neutral conditions will continue. Most of the models, including the CFS Ensemble mean, predict the development of El Nino in the August-September-October period and to continue into early 2013.
Here is the Pacific Nino 3.4 sea surface temperature outlook from a number of models.
This graph shows that most of the models take the sea surface anomalies to 0.5 degrees C and above starting in the August-September-October period.
The CFS ensemble mean also predicts the same.
The following bar graph shows the probability of each ENSO. There is a high probability of neutral early on trending toward at least equal chance by this fall and winter.
It will be critical to watch how these numbers change with time as we go into and through the summer. Right now, odds are favoring at least a weak El Nino next winter.
As of the end of June there had been no named storms in the Eastern Pacific basin.
This is some serious and dangerous heat. Outdoor activity is just not at all recommended during the daytime.
A strong ridge of high pressure in the West brings the highest heat of the season so far to a large area.
Combine the cold with the wind and some precipitation and there is a real danger of hypothermia.
Any shower and thunderstorm can contain heavy downpours, heavy enough to cause temporary, low-lying ponding.
According to all long-range models, the warmest area in North America compared to average will be over the Northwest.