Western U.S. Weather Blog

Share |

Below-Normal Precipitation and the Beat Goes on

Feb 20, 2012; 1:13 PM ET

There have been changes in the weather pattern from warm to cool and even a little rain and snow thrown in for the Southwest part of the nation over the last month. (For the purposes of this discussion, I am defining the Southwest as being much of California to Nevada and south into Arizona.) However, what has not changed is the drier-than-normal weather that has been plaguing this area of the country all winter long. According to all the models I am looking at, and also the people at the Climate Prediction Center, there is absolutely no reason for optimism.

The current cool trough in the Southwest will be replaced by more of a ridge taking over the rest of the week. The center of that ridge will stay off the coast of California, but it will get closer sending the jet stream farther away from this area of the country. This is likely to bring precipitation-free weather the rest of the week and through Saturday in all of the Southwest. Temperatures will be getting warmer, considerably above normal, by 10 degrees or more, over a large part of this area.

Over the weekend into next week, that ridge will move west again allowing another trough to drop south from the Northwest, but the problem is that the trough axis is east of the coast, and in the Southwest, it's just a cooler northwest flow aloft that takes over, not a moist flow of air. So while temperatures cool, the weather will stay mostly dry. There could be a few snow showers in the northern Sierra and northern Nevada, but that hardly counts as a storm.

Here is what the CPC has for the precipitation forecast for the 6- to 10-day period.

Tomorrow, I will show you what the statistics show for precipitation compared to normal since July 1 and also for the month of February at select cities.

The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of AccuWeather, Inc. or AccuWeather.com

Comments

Comments left here should adhere to the AccuWeather.com Community Guidelines. Profanity, personal attacks, and spam will not be tolerated.

More Ken Clark

  • Nothing Big This Week

    May 7, 2012; 12:29 PM ET

    For the rest of the week there will not be anything drastic going on in the West.

  • Lake Mead Water Levels Dropping

    Apr 27, 2012; 12:40 PM ET

    Despite a late-season surge in precipitation across a large part of the West, Lake Mead is still expected to experience noticeably lower levels

  • Another Late-Season Storm at Midweek

    Apr 23, 2012; 12:28 PM ET

    A combination of two separate storms will bring much of the West a round of wet, cool weather for Wednesday into Thursday.

  • Huge Temperature Gradient

    Apr 20, 2012; 12:36 PM ET

    Most coastal areas are only in the low to mid 60s but it warms to the 80s in the eastern coastal cities and the 90s in the valleys.

  • Summerlike Weather by Weeks End

    Apr 16, 2012; 12:45 PM ET

    This ridge will likely bring well above-normal temperatures by Friday into the weekend for areas away from the Pacific waters.

  • Two California Late-Season Storms

    Apr 10, 2012; 12:36 PM ET

    some welcomed rainfall levels of between 1/2 to 1 inch over central California with nearly the same amounts around the Los Angeles Basin.

  • Storms Return Next Week

    Apr 6, 2012; 12:42 PM ET

    In fact what is so scary about this long range forecast is how much the models agree.

About This Blog

Ken Clark
Ken Clark's Western U.S. weather blog tackles daily weather events with commentary from one of the most experienced and trusted Western U.S. weather experts.

AccuWeather.com Bloggers

5/28/2012 11:15:26 PM /blog-entry.asp 6 .75.115 (accuweather)-- [new]