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Another Week of Bad Rain and Snow News

Jan 9, 2012; 1:15 PM ET

Last week, my blog was all about the snow drought in the West and the fact that at no time in the foreseeable future was any important precipitation coming. Does this new week bring any hope? Absolutely not. Does next week bring any hope? Much more than likely not if you live in California on east and southeast.

A weak upper-level trough moving into the Northwest tonight will bring light precipitation with it. Eventually, this trough will start to split with energy heading east but some energy on the western end pinching off into a small closed low off the northern California coast later Tuesday. All models take this small low and move it south. However, they range from being just offshore of the central California coast and down through the Channel Islands of southern California Wednesday to as far west of southern California by 600 to 800 miles. The NAM is the closest model, the European is the farthest west. A compromise between these two are the GFS and the Canadian model. These two models have been fairly consistent in this scenario. Here is what the GFS has for the 500 mb pattern late Tuesday then late Wednesday.

LATE TUESDAY

LATE WEDNESDAY

In the grand scheme of things, it really doesn't matter as this low has no chance of bringing important precipitation. I think there can be a couple of showers in northwestern California tomorrow, perhaps a shower in spots from around the Bay Area to parts of the Central Coast later Tuesday and Tuesday night. Other than marine clouds in southern California that could release a little drizzle, no rain is expected in the south. But like I said, the worst case scenario bringing the low a little closer still would not bring significant precipitation.

After this one system clears the Northwest, there will be no precipitation there through at least Saturday. Most of the rest of the far West will have no precipitation at all. I again show you what the GFS has for total precipitation from this morning through Saturday morning.

Before some say that this is only the GFS, let me remind you that it was the GFS that accurately pegged the dry weather over the last week. Let me also say that the European is not offering any different of a prediction either for much of the area. Please note that the precipitation that shows up on the following map in the Northwest is what falls tonight and Tuesday morning only, after that it will be dry.

Looking even farther out the GFS, and for the most part the European, offers little hope well into next week for at least California on east. No rain or snow is being forecast for a place like Fresno and the Sierra through Jan. 25. The last time Fresno had measurable rain was way, way back on Nov. 20 when 0.30 of an inch fell.

It does look like the Northwest and northern Rockies may get wetter and whiter toward the middle and end of next week but the storm track remains far removed from the Southwest.

The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of AccuWeather, Inc. or AccuWeather.com

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More Ken Clark

  • Nothing Big This Week

    May 7, 2012; 12:29 PM ET

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  • Lake Mead Water Levels Dropping

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  • Another Late-Season Storm at Midweek

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  • Huge Temperature Gradient

    Apr 20, 2012; 12:36 PM ET

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  • Summerlike Weather by Weeks End

    Apr 16, 2012; 12:45 PM ET

    This ridge will likely bring well above-normal temperatures by Friday into the weekend for areas away from the Pacific waters.

  • Two California Late-Season Storms

    Apr 10, 2012; 12:36 PM ET

    some welcomed rainfall levels of between 1/2 to 1 inch over central California with nearly the same amounts around the Los Angeles Basin.

  • Storms Return Next Week

    Apr 6, 2012; 12:42 PM ET

    In fact what is so scary about this long range forecast is how much the models agree.

About This Blog

Ken Clark
Ken Clark's Western U.S. weather blog tackles daily weather events with commentary from one of the most experienced and trusted Western U.S. weather experts.

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