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A Short Period of Wet Weather For California

Feb 6, 2012; 1:19 PM ET

A storm in the Eastern Pacific puts an end to another extended rain-free period in California. Unfortunately, it will not be a big or long-lasting storm, and precipitation amounts in the Sierra are likely to be less than along coastal areas.

A satellite picture of the Eastern Pacific shows the storm. The center of the storm is out around 42N and 138W. Well east of that is a long cold front from that extends as far south as below 15N.

One piece of this storm will be riding almost due north over the next 24 hours and just brushes the coastal Northwest with nuisance rainfall. A southern piece of the storm will move east before cutting off into a closed low off the south-central California coast late Tuesday and Tuesday evening. Then that low will move due south off the coast of the Baja Peninsula Wednesday and Wednesday night.

The storm right now has a lot of moisture with it. However, some of that will be sacrificed to breaking down the current ridge in place. Still, it is likely to rain at least some in much of northern and central California into the southwest sections of the state. The main question to answer, and certainly the hardest, is how far east the trough gets before cutting off. The farther west that takes place will mean less rainfall of the Central Valley and southern California.

Right now there are two camps. The GFS and NAM bring the trough farther east and therefore more rain than the European and the Canadian which cuts off the low farther offshore. Rainfall amounts do not differ too much between the models from the North Bay to Pt. Conception. However, for the San Joaquin Valley and the Los Angeles Basin, the rainfall amounts are between 3 and 5 times lower on the European and Canadian than the GFS and NAM. A late look at the 18z run of the NAM shows that it has gone more toward the European idea and has much less rain for most of southern California than the 12Z run did.

My rainfall forecast is for1/3 to 2/3 of an inch from Pt. Conception to the North Bay Communities and some coastal mountains could get an inch, with between 0.10 and 0.25 of an inch in the San Joaquin Valley. In Southern California, a forecast of 0.10 to 0.25 of an inch seems also best. However, the Upper Deserts will probably at best get a shower or two and most of the Lower Deserts will get nothing.

No matter which model is right this is not going to be a big snow producer for the Sierra or southern California mountains. In general, snow levels will be about 6,000 feet in the Sierra to 6,500 to 7,000 feet in Southern California. Snow totals will probably only be 3 to 6 inches.

The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of AccuWeather, Inc. or AccuWeather.com

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About This Blog

Ken Clark
Ken Clark's Western U.S. weather blog tackles daily weather events with commentary from one of the most experienced and trusted Western U.S. weather experts.

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