Tropical Cyclone Nilam (02B) is on track to bring flooding rain and strong winds to southeastern india.
The storm has already unleashed torrential rain in parts of Sri Lanka and the India state of Tamil Nadu.
Nilam, which looped lazily over the southern Bay of Bengal east of Sri Lanka Monday and Tuesday, was forecast to track northwest to the India coast near Chennai on Wednesday.
Tropical Cyclone Nilam spreads clouds westward over Sri Lanka and southern India as of 1200 UTC Tuesday, Oct. 30, 2012. (Navy Research Lab - NRLMRY)
The cyclone center was about 225 miles east of Jaffna, Sri Lanka, or 330 miles southeast of Chennai, India, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) said. Top sustained winds were estimated to be about 45 mph.
The greatest threat to life and property, due to Nilam, will be that of flooding rainfall to at least 8 to 12 inches, especially in the state of Tamil Nadu and in northern and western Sri Lanka, by Thursday. Local excessive rainfall may reach the southern India states of Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh.
Winds will be locally damaging along and near the path of Nilam. For boats, the cyclone will make for dangerous wind and water at sea.
As of Tuesday, rainfall was already 11.5 inches within two days at Trincomalee, Sri Lanka. In Tamil Nadu, a rainfall of 9.2 inches was registered at Karaikal.
The plum rains are known as "meiyu" in China, the "baiyu" or "tsuyu" in Japan, and the "jangma" in the Koreas. The heart of the plum rain season stretches from early June to mid-July, with a tendency to shift south to north across the affected area.
In the wake of the mid-June cloudbursts, most of Pakistan to northwestern India last week saw a return to dry, hot weather typical of the weeks leading up to the Monsoon onset. It was as if the Monsoon withdrew to its "normal" position for the latter half of June.
The 38.5 degree C (101 degrees F) reading Tuesday in Ajaccio, Corsica, may have been tops in Europe.
Monsoon Onset was June 13th, 2013, in Delhi, almost two weeks earlier than average. The June 15th onset at Karachi and Islamabad was more like three week ahead of schedule.
In Pakistan, hit-or-miss downpours missed the Sindh capital, Karachi. One did hit Pad Idan, where it left 60 mm of rain Wednesday. This was more than 20 times greater than the normal June rainfall.
It is still possible that this scenario is over wrought as to the intensity and spread of rain in Pakistan and northwestern India. However, it is the hunch of the present forecaster that some very unusual weather is going to unfold in the Subcontinent during the next week!