Tropical Cyclone Imelda, which has strengthened significantly east of northern Madagascar, was forecast to veer southward later in the week.
The expected path would imply a potential threat to Mauritius.
As of Monday, the center of Imelda was still more than 800 miles northeast of mainland Mauritius, packing top sustained winds of 40 knots, or about 75 km/h, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) website said. Storm movement was towards the west at 12 knots, or about 22 km/h.
This was Tropical Cyclone Imelda, as captured from space via infrared imagery. Taken 1200 UTC Monday, April 8, 2013. (NRLMRY website)
Forecasters with the JTWC as well as the Tropical Cyclone Centre of La Reunion called for further strengthening, culminating in at least Category 2 hurricane equivalent status by Thursday.
At this time, Imelda was expected to be veering sharply southward, well east of northern Madagascar. Depending on the sharpness of the recurvature, the forecast veering could bring the storm's severe wind and flooding rain in near proximity to Mauritius.
The last tropical cyclone to live out its life cyclone in the southwestern Indian Ocean basin was Haruna, which strike southwestern Madagascar from the Mozambique Channel at about Feb. 20.
The plum rains are known as "meiyu" in China, the "baiyu" or "tsuyu" in Japan, and the "jangma" in the Koreas. The heart of the plum rain season stretches from early June to mid-July, with a tendency to shift south to north across the affected area.
In the wake of the mid-June cloudbursts, most of Pakistan to northwestern India last week saw a return to dry, hot weather typical of the weeks leading up to the Monsoon onset. It was as if the Monsoon withdrew to its "normal" position for the latter half of June.
The 38.5 degree C (101 degrees F) reading Tuesday in Ajaccio, Corsica, may have been tops in Europe.
Monsoon Onset was June 13th, 2013, in Delhi, almost two weeks earlier than average. The June 15th onset at Karachi and Islamabad was more like three week ahead of schedule.
In Pakistan, hit-or-miss downpours missed the Sindh capital, Karachi. One did hit Pad Idan, where it left 60 mm of rain Wednesday. This was more than 20 times greater than the normal June rainfall.
It is still possible that this scenario is over wrought as to the intensity and spread of rain in Pakistan and northwestern India. However, it is the hunch of the present forecaster that some very unusual weather is going to unfold in the Subcontinent during the next week!