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    Tropical Cyclone Hitting Sri Lanka, South India

    October 29, 2012, 5:14:56 AM EDT

    A tropical depression over the southwestern Bay of Bengal will gain tropical cyclone status as it makes its way west to the south coast of India.

    Flooding rain and damaging winds will threaten parts of Sri Lanka and southeastern India along and near the path of this low.

    Seas will be dangerous for fishing boats and other small vessels.

    The estimated position of the low as of 1200 UTC Monday, Oct. 29, was about 180 miles east-southeast of Jaffna, Sri Lanka, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) indicated via its website.

    Highest sustained winds were reckoned by the IMD to be at least 40 mph, which is at or above the minimal threshold for a tropical storm.

    Movement of the low was slowly towards the west-southwest.


    Tropical depression was centered east of northern Sri Lanka at the time of this 1300 UTC, Monday, Oct. 29, satellite image. (India Meteorological Department - IMD)

    The IMD forecast this tropical low to veer northward, north of Sri Lanka, on Tuesday, then to cross the shore of Tamil Nadu state, south of Chennai, on Wednesday.

    Given such a path, top rainfall in northern and western Sri Lanka to southeastern India would be 8 to 12 inches, enough to trigger serious flooding.

    The months of October and November mark the height of the rainy season in this area. Rainfall during the last two weeks has left the ground saturated in some areas, which could magnify the impact of the heavy rain.

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