A tropical depression over the southwestern Bay of Bengal will gain tropical cyclone status as it makes its way west to the south coast of India.
Flooding rain and damaging winds will threaten parts of Sri Lanka and southeastern India along and near the path of this low.
Seas will be dangerous for fishing boats and other small vessels.
The estimated position of the low as of 1200 UTC Monday, Oct. 29, was about 180 miles east-southeast of Jaffna, Sri Lanka, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) indicated via its website.
Highest sustained winds were reckoned by the IMD to be at least 40 mph, which is at or above the minimal threshold for a tropical storm.
Movement of the low was slowly towards the west-southwest.
Tropical depression was centered east of northern Sri Lanka at the time of this 1300 UTC, Monday, Oct. 29, satellite image. (India Meteorological Department - IMD)
The IMD forecast this tropical low to veer northward, north of Sri Lanka, on Tuesday, then to cross the shore of Tamil Nadu state, south of Chennai, on Wednesday.
Given such a path, top rainfall in northern and western Sri Lanka to southeastern India would be 8 to 12 inches, enough to trigger serious flooding.
The months of October and November mark the height of the rainy season in this area. Rainfall during the last two weeks has left the ground saturated in some areas, which could magnify the impact of the heavy rain.
The plum rains are known as "meiyu" in China, the "baiyu" or "tsuyu" in Japan, and the "jangma" in the Koreas. The heart of the plum rain season stretches from early June to mid-July, with a tendency to shift south to north across the affected area.
In the wake of the mid-June cloudbursts, most of Pakistan to northwestern India last week saw a return to dry, hot weather typical of the weeks leading up to the Monsoon onset. It was as if the Monsoon withdrew to its "normal" position for the latter half of June.
The 38.5 degree C (101 degrees F) reading Tuesday in Ajaccio, Corsica, may have been tops in Europe.
Monsoon Onset was June 13th, 2013, in Delhi, almost two weeks earlier than average. The June 15th onset at Karachi and Islamabad was more like three week ahead of schedule.
In Pakistan, hit-or-miss downpours missed the Sindh capital, Karachi. One did hit Pad Idan, where it left 60 mm of rain Wednesday. This was more than 20 times greater than the normal June rainfall.
It is still possible that this scenario is over wrought as to the intensity and spread of rain in Pakistan and northwestern India. However, it is the hunch of the present forecaster that some very unusual weather is going to unfold in the Subcontinent during the next week!