Anais, the first Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone of the 2012-2013 cyclone season, has proven to be powerful.
The highest sustained winds reached an estimated 115 knots (about 133 mph) on Sunday, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) indicated. Put another way, the cyclone was the equivalent of a Category 3 hurricane.
Tropical Cyclone Anais had begun to weaken at the time of this satellite shot, taken 0600 UTC Monday, Oct. 15, 2012. Anais was over the south Indian Ocean, about 1,000 miles east of northern Madagascar. (Navy Research Lab Monterrey -- NRLMRY)
No land was in the immediate path of Anais.
Monday, winds had slipped to 100 knots (115 mph), still those of a strong storm.
Undoubtedly, the southeast-tracking storm was straying outside the environment favorable for tropical cyclones, as maps of sea-surface temperature indicated that Anais was entering an area of relatively cool surface waters.
All indicators pointed to a continued track towards the southeast over waters registering only 24 to 25 degrees C (75-77 F).
Normally, tropical cyclones need to track over 26- to 27-degree-C water (about 80 F) to scavenge enough heat energy to remain viable, barring interaction with a non-tropical weather system.
Going forward, Anais will continue to head towards the south and east, perhaps targeting the small island of St. Brandon. Late in the week, Anais could track near Mauritius and La Reunion, even approaching the east coast of Madagascar. However, the relatively cool early season sea surface will be unfavorable for sustaining serious tropical cyclone.
The plum rains are known as "meiyu" in China, the "baiyu" or "tsuyu" in Japan, and the "jangma" in the Koreas. The heart of the plum rain season stretches from early June to mid-July, with a tendency to shift south to north across the affected area.
In the wake of the mid-June cloudbursts, most of Pakistan to northwestern India last week saw a return to dry, hot weather typical of the weeks leading up to the Monsoon onset. It was as if the Monsoon withdrew to its "normal" position for the latter half of June.
The 38.5 degree C (101 degrees F) reading Tuesday in Ajaccio, Corsica, may have been tops in Europe.
Monsoon Onset was June 13th, 2013, in Delhi, almost two weeks earlier than average. The June 15th onset at Karachi and Islamabad was more like three week ahead of schedule.
In Pakistan, hit-or-miss downpours missed the Sindh capital, Karachi. One did hit Pad Idan, where it left 60 mm of rain Wednesday. This was more than 20 times greater than the normal June rainfall.
It is still possible that this scenario is over wrought as to the intensity and spread of rain in Pakistan and northwestern India. However, it is the hunch of the present forecaster that some very unusual weather is going to unfold in the Subcontinent during the next week!