, °F

Personalized Forecasts

Featured Forecast

My Favorite Forecasts

    My Recent Locations

    Jim Andrews

    Share |

    Powerful Cyclone Is First of Southern Hemisphere Season

    October 15, 2012; 6:35 AM ET

    Anais, the first Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone of the 2012-2013 cyclone season, has proven to be powerful.

    The highest sustained winds reached an estimated 115 knots (about 133 mph) on Sunday, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) indicated. Put another way, the cyclone was the equivalent of a Category 3 hurricane.

    Tropical Cyclone Anais had begun to weaken at the time of this satellite shot, taken 0600 UTC Monday, Oct. 15, 2012. Anais was over the south Indian Ocean, about 1,000 miles east of northern Madagascar. (Navy Research Lab Monterrey -- NRLMRY)

    No land was in the immediate path of Anais.

    Monday, winds had slipped to 100 knots (115 mph), still those of a strong storm.

    Undoubtedly, the southeast-tracking storm was straying outside the environment favorable for tropical cyclones, as maps of sea-surface temperature indicated that Anais was entering an area of relatively cool surface waters.

    All indicators pointed to a continued track towards the southeast over waters registering only 24 to 25 degrees C (75-77 F).

    Normally, tropical cyclones need to track over 26- to 27-degree-C water (about 80 F) to scavenge enough heat energy to remain viable, barring interaction with a non-tropical weather system.

    Going forward, Anais will continue to head towards the south and east, perhaps targeting the small island of St. Brandon. Late in the week, Anais could track near Mauritius and La Reunion, even approaching the east coast of Madagascar. However, the relatively cool early season sea surface will be unfavorable for sustaining serious tropical cyclone.

    The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of AccuWeather, Inc. or AccuWeather.com


    Comments left here should adhere to the AccuWeather.com Community Guidelines. Profanity, personal attacks, and spam will not be tolerated.

    More International Weather Blog

    • Plum Rains to Shift North Next Week

      June 27, 2013; 12:28 PM ET

      The plum rains are known as "meiyu" in China, the "baiyu" or "tsuyu" in Japan, and the "jangma" in the Koreas. The heart of the plum rain season stretches from early June to mid-July, with a tendency to shift south to north across the affected area.

    • Monsoon Rains to Pick Up After a Break

      June 24, 2013; 9:30 AM ET

      In the wake of the mid-June cloudbursts, most of Pakistan to northwestern India last week saw a return to dry, hot weather typical of the weeks leading up to the Monsoon onset. It was as if the Monsoon withdrew to its "normal" position for the latter half of June.

    • Heat Wave Bakes Heart of Europe

      June 19, 2013; 8:24 AM ET

      The 38.5 degree C (101 degrees F) reading Tuesday in Ajaccio, Corsica, may have been tops in Europe.

    • Southwest Monsoon Onset Four Weeks Early

      June 16, 2013; 1:33 PM ET

      Monsoon Onset was June 13th, 2013, in Delhi, almost two weeks earlier than average. The June 15th onset at Karachi and Islamabad was more like three week ahead of schedule.

    • Indian Monsoon Surges West, Lags East

      June 13, 2013; 10:00 AM ET

      In Pakistan, hit-or-miss downpours missed the Sindh capital, Karachi. One did hit Pad Idan, where it left 60 mm of rain Wednesday. This was more than 20 times greater than the normal June rainfall.

    • What Is Happening in the Subcontinent?

      June 10, 2013; 1:09 PM ET

      It is still possible that this scenario is over wrought as to the intensity and spread of rain in Pakistan and northwestern India. However, it is the hunch of the present forecaster that some very unusual weather is going to unfold in the Subcontinent during the next week!