--Rainstorms Befit August, not September
Big thunderstorms struck the plains of Pakistan Saturday and Sunday, giving needed rain. However, they also brought tragic loss of life and property.
Sunday, alone, at least 20 people were killed in "rain-related incidents," the Dawn News website said.
In Sindh, storms swamp roads, flooded homes and triggered electrical blackouts.
Flooding and roof collapses were reported in Punjab, Dawn said.
Rainfall of 199 mm (7.8 inches) inundated Khanpur, Punjab, within 24 hours ended Sunday, the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) said.
Normal September rainfall in Khanpur is only 14.6, according to the PMD.
Elsewhere, 24-hour falls of 25 to 100 (about 1-4 inches) were registered in a number of sites elsewhere in the region.
The PMD warned of further flooding downpours in strong thunderstorms into early this week.
Most of the areas normally watered by the summer monsoon were unusually dry during July and August, the two wettest months of the year.
The first widespread rains of the summer then swept into Pakistan early in September. This month normally sees the onset of the long dry season across the Indus Plain.
Trigger for the late-season cloudbursts has been monsoon low pressure that set up farther north and west than unusual.
GFS numerical forecast model analysis of the 700-millibar level shows unusual, late-season monsoon low pressure over the Kutch region of Sindh, Pakistan and Gujarat, India, on Sunday, Sept. 9, 2012. Moisture-laden flow from the east and south spread northward from this low, triggering widespread downpours with localized flooding. Dark green marks highest relative humidity.
Sunday, low pressure was centered directly over the Sindh-Gujarat (neighboring India) border.
AccuWeather.com meteorologists foresee at least another day of widespread thunderstorms with local flooding rainfall, both in SIndh and in Punjab.
At least scattered thunderstorms will pop up daily through most of the week.
Monsoon Onset was June 13th, 2013, in Delhi, almost two weeks earlier than average. The June 15th onset at Karachi and Islamabad was more like three week ahead of schedule.
In Pakistan, hit-or-miss downpours missed the Sindh capital, Karachi. One did hit Pad Idan, where it left 60 mm of rain Wednesday. This was more than 20 times greater than the normal June rainfall.
It is still possible that this scenario is over wrought as to the intensity and spread of rain in Pakistan and northwestern India. However, it is the hunch of the present forecaster that some very unusual weather is going to unfold in the Subcontinent during the next week!
North of the expected Monsoon low, moist, rain-cooled air should flow northward to the Himalayas, even westward into the Indus Valley of Pakistan, the result being scattered downpours along with a break in the pre-Monsoon heat next week.
On Wednesday, June 5, 2013, the South West Monsoon was set to leap northward on the Indian Subcontinent by the middle of the month.
According to preliminary data not including the last three days of May, it was the coldest spring since 1962 and the fifth coldest since 1910, when comprehensive record keeping began in the U.K.
Jim Andrews
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