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    November's Second T.C. off Southeast Arabia

    November 10, 2011, 2:34:33 AM EST


    IMD image shows T.C. Four (04A) southeast of Oman on Nov. 8, 2011.

    Tropical Cyclone Four (04A) has taken shape over the western Arabian Sea within a week of another tropical cyclone landing in southern Oman.

    At this writing (near 1800 UTC, Nov. 8), T.C. 04A is centered about 625 km (less than 400 miles) southeast of Salalah, Oman. Highest sustained winds have been pegged at 65 km/h (35 knots) by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC); the India Meteorological Department (IMD) put the number at 50-60 km/h (about 30 knots), or that of a tropical depression.

    Movement, which has been slow to the northwest (Tuesday), is forecast to become more westerly by Wednesday. Whereas the JTWC plot a track ultimately aiming east-southeastward to Cape Gwardafuy, Somalia (by Nov. 12), the IMD show a westward path approaching the eastern coast of Yemen on Nov. 11.

    The official forecasts that I have seen show some strengthening into Wednesday, followed by weakening. Weakening after Wednesday may be tied to a pulse of dry air flowing southeast from the Khaleej (eastern Arabia).

    Impact-wise, the biggest forecast problem is that of rain: will there be another shot of flooding rain along/near Arabia's southeastern coast? After all, T.C. Keila caused tragic, destructive flash flooding in the Dhofar region of Oman (east of Salalah, I believe).

    The aforesaid pulse of dry air will limit the infiltration (of the Arabian mainland) by deep convective rain, if not altogether preclude it.

    At this writing, deep tropical convection lies not far off Oman's southeastern coast, and I believe that torrential rain could find its way to the immediate coast at some time within 24 to 48 hours. Some GFS forecast scenarios have shown heavy rain as far north as the Makran coast of southwestern Pakistan.


    This was Tropical Cyclone Keila, off Salalah, Oman (NRLMRY image taken Nov. 4).

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