Jim Andrews

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Monsoon Rains to Pick Up After a Break

June 24, 2013; 9:30 AM ET

Monsoon rains will grow in coverage and intensity in the Indian subcontinent this week following a marked lull.

Likely hot spots will spread along the central and eastern Himalayas through central India as well as the west coast southward from Gujarat.

Localized heavy falls of rain will hit the flood-stricken highlands of northern India and western Nepal, where rescue and clean up were still under way as of Monday following last week's tragic floods.

Extreme rainfall along the western Himalayas was the culmination of a surging South West Monsoon, which sprinted to cover virtually all of the subcontinent by the 16th of June. The exceptional early onset was up to four weeks ahead of the historical average.

In the wake of the mid-June cloudbursts, most of Pakistan to northwestern India last week saw a return to dry, hot weather typical of the weeks leading up to the Monsoon onset. It was as if the Monsoon withdrew to its "normal" position for the latter half of June.

-New Monsoon Low to Ramp Up Rain

Forecast of cumulative rainfall Monday, 24 June, 2013, to Monday, 1 July, 2013, based upon the GFS numerical forecast model. Dark red "hot spots" show forecast rainfall of at least 200 mm (about 8 inches). Note here the forecast lack of rain in much of Pakistan into the desert of Rajasthan. (Credit: wxmaps.org)

A cyclonic weather system marked by low pressure was spinning near the northwest shore of the Bay of Bengal as of Monday. Since Sunday, this low had already triggered heavy falls of rain in areas of the southeastern half of the subcontinent.

The low from the Bay of Bengal will drift westward over central India through about Wednesday, triggering localized flooding rains nearby and, more distantly, in geographically favored parts of the subcontinent. After Wednesday, movement of the low was forecast to become more erratic, potentially veering slowly northeastward to give increased rainfall along the Himalayas, even westward to the flood-hit states of Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh.

The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of AccuWeather, Inc. or AccuWeather.com

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