AccuWeather.com

International Weather Blog

Madagascar Facing Cyclone Threat

Jan 7, 2012; 12:39 PM ET

TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL

Tropical low pressure has formed in the Mozambique Channel, where it could become an important tropical cyclone before potentially crossing the shores of western Madagascar Sunday or Monday.

Already, as of Saturday, locally heavy rain has pelted both sides of the channel, mostly in the northern halves of Madagascar and Mozambique, this week. Likewise, the Comoros Islands have been dosed.

Tropical Low Pressure in the Mozambique Channel as of 1700 GMT Saturday, Jan 7, 2012 (Navy Research Lab Monterrey)

Satellite imagery on Saturday has shown deep convective rains reaching well northwest into Africa, likely along the southern edge of the regional Monsoon. This stream seems to have been feeding the gathering low.

On Friday, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) plotted the center of low pressure within 50 to 100 miles of central Mozambique. Now, as of Saturday afternoon, local time, the low's center seems to be over the middle of the southern Mozambique Channel, drifting southeastward.

FLASH FLOODING GREATEST HAZARD

Landfall in Madagascar looks set to happen near, if not between, Morombe and Morondava, Madagascar.

A slower forward speed could favor a stronger storm, as sea surface temperature in the likely path of this low is about 29 degrees C as of early Friday.

Barring explosive deepening to a storm of hurricane intensity, the greatest hazard stemming from this tropical weather system will be that of flash flooding. I believe that western Madagascar north the low's path, together with southeastern Madagascar, will be at greatest risk of excessive rain and serious flooding through the middle of next week.

Historically, Madagascar has suffered serious flash flooding during its summer rainy season, especially in the drier, scrubby western side of this huge island. A rough estimate is that highest falls of rain will be between 8 and 16 inches (200 and 400 mm) through the first half of the week.

The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of AccuWeather, Inc. or AccuWeather.com

blogs Home >

Comments

Comments left here should adhere to the AccuWeather.com Community Guidelines. Profanity, personal attacks, and spam will not be tolerated.

More Jim Andrews

Australia Eyes Iggy

Jan 29, 2012; 1:52 PM ET

It is not out of the question that this cyclone pay Geraldton or even Perth a visit after Wednesday.

The Great Blizzard of January 1978

Jan 26, 2012; 1:54 PM ET

Within minutes of the switchover to snow, visibility was only a few hundred feet in snow and blowing snow.

Tropical Cyclone Landfall in Madagascar

Jan 8, 2012; 1:42 PM ET

Nearly one foot of rain pelted Maintirano within about 48 hours ended Sunday.

Madagascar Facing Cyclone Threat

Jan 7, 2012; 12:39 PM ET

The tropical low could strengthen quickly to an important tropical cyclone before a likely landfall in western Madagascar.

Record Heat, Other Weather Extremes

Dec 22, 2011; 1:35 PM ET

Western Australia state had its hottest December day on record.

November's Second T.C. off Southeast Arabia

Nov 8, 2011; 2:01 PM ET

Impact-wise, the biggest forecast problem is that of rain: will there be another shot of flooding rain along/near Arabia's southeastern coast?

Karachi, Sindh -- Is This the End of the Rain?

Sep 13, 2011; 2:00 PM ET

So there should be no shock in learning that much of Sindh has already tallied 1,000 to more than 2,000 percent of historical average rainfall for the month.

Sindh (Pakistan) Flooding Follows Cloudbursts Last Week

Aug 17, 2011; 1:33 PM ET

Following a mostly rainless July, then a bone-dry first week of August, the rains came in a big way to some, not all, of Sindh.

Snow in New Zealand

Aug 16, 2011; 12:23 PM ET

Before this week's falls, the last significant snow fell in the mid 1970s. If I have understood media reports, this would hold true for both Wellington and Auckland.

Latest on SW Monsoon Rainfall

Aug 10, 2011; 12:42 PM ET

Rainfall across India as a whole (and by extension, the Subcontinent) has been somewhat below normal since June 1, 2011, the official start of the Monsoon season.

Record Heat in Iraq

Aug 2, 2011; 1:14 PM ET

Tuesday, Aug. 2 must have been one of the hottest days, at least in the historical weather record, in the nation of Iraq.

Historic Heat Wave in Russia

Aug 1, 2011; 1:11 PM ET

Fast forward to 2011. A late-July blast of heat out of central and southwest Asia gripped the lower Volga/NW Caspian region beginning about the 26th.

Rain in Karachi; Western Pacific Lighting Up

Jul 26, 2011; 12:41 PM ET

The last measurable rain at this site happened last winter, on February 20.

Ma-on, the Next Big Typhoon

Jul 12, 2011; 12:08 PM ET

Earlier model runs favored a track into the Yellow Sea to Korea and even China. Later model scenarios have been more about mainland Japan.

The Watch Is On for the Next Typhoon

Jul 7, 2011; 12:24 PM ET

The latest GFS numerical forecast model (1200 UTC Thursday) shows slow lessening of the (unfavorable) wind shear over the next few days.

older Posts >

About This Blog

Jim Andrews
The International weather blog from AccuWeather.com is written by Jim Andrews who has more than 10 years experience forecasting outside the United States.