MID, EAST EUROPE LOOKING AT BIG WARMUP
Numerical forecast scenarios are setting up much of Europe for what could turn out to be its hottest weather of the summer.
The thrust of these scenarios is that low pressure will settle near the Black Sea late in the week as high pressure aloft shunts the core of jet stream far northward in its trek through Europe.
For at least the weekend through early next week, a corridor from Germany and Poland east and northeast to western and northwestern Russia would have widespread temperatures at least 4 C to 8 C above normal. High temperature could easily reach 10 C and more above normal.
Put another way, cities from Berlin and Warsaw to Kiyev, Minsk, Moscow and St. Petersburg may well reach the 33 C to 35 C range.
MAJOR CITIES HAVE ALREADY FELT SOME OF SUMMER'S HEAT
Since the start of summer, it has already been hot in much of this broad swathe. Berlin and Warsaw have seen 33 C. Highs of nearly 34 C in Moscow broke records.
Earlier in June, Minsk hit 30 C and Kiyev soared to 34 C. St. Petersburg has yet to see the 30-degree mark.
Early "hints" from the GFS numerical model are that even worse heat will follow during the second week of the forecast.
The plum rains are known as "meiyu" in China, the "baiyu" or "tsuyu" in Japan, and the "jangma" in the Koreas. The heart of the plum rain season stretches from early June to mid-July, with a tendency to shift south to north across the affected area.
In the wake of the mid-June cloudbursts, most of Pakistan to northwestern India last week saw a return to dry, hot weather typical of the weeks leading up to the Monsoon onset. It was as if the Monsoon withdrew to its "normal" position for the latter half of June.
The 38.5 degree C (101 degrees F) reading Tuesday in Ajaccio, Corsica, may have been tops in Europe.
Monsoon Onset was June 13th, 2013, in Delhi, almost two weeks earlier than average. The June 15th onset at Karachi and Islamabad was more like three week ahead of schedule.
In Pakistan, hit-or-miss downpours missed the Sindh capital, Karachi. One did hit Pad Idan, where it left 60 mm of rain Wednesday. This was more than 20 times greater than the normal June rainfall.
It is still possible that this scenario is over wrought as to the intensity and spread of rain in Pakistan and northwestern India. However, it is the hunch of the present forecaster that some very unusual weather is going to unfold in the Subcontinent during the next week!