Tropical Cyclone Freda is on a path the could bring torrential rain and strong winds over New Caledonia late in the week.
The powerful cyclone, located over the Coral Sea south of the Solomon Islands, held highest sustained winds of 105 knots (about 130 mph) as of Monday morning, local time, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) website said.
The JTWC forecast to aim southward through Tuesday night before veering southeastward on Wednesday. Significant weakening of the storm was also forecast.
Thursday and Friday, the weakening cyclone could track near enough to the island of New Caledonia to trigger excessive rain and flooding, as well as strong winds.
It is unclear whether Freda takes an alternate path towards the west, leading to its approach to the east coast of Australia before the end of the week.
Color-enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows Tropical Cyclone Freda as of 13:30 UTC (23:30 Australian EST) Monday, Dec. 31, 2012. The position of Freda is over the Coral Sea, both northwest of New Caledonia and south of the Solomon Islands. At the time, the location was less than 450 miles northwest of Noumea, New Caledonia, or about 600 miles south of Honiara, Solomon Islands (Australian Bureau of Meteorology).
The plum rains are known as "meiyu" in China, the "baiyu" or "tsuyu" in Japan, and the "jangma" in the Koreas. The heart of the plum rain season stretches from early June to mid-July, with a tendency to shift south to north across the affected area.
In the wake of the mid-June cloudbursts, most of Pakistan to northwestern India last week saw a return to dry, hot weather typical of the weeks leading up to the Monsoon onset. It was as if the Monsoon withdrew to its "normal" position for the latter half of June.
The 38.5 degree C (101 degrees F) reading Tuesday in Ajaccio, Corsica, may have been tops in Europe.
Monsoon Onset was June 13th, 2013, in Delhi, almost two weeks earlier than average. The June 15th onset at Karachi and Islamabad was more like three week ahead of schedule.
In Pakistan, hit-or-miss downpours missed the Sindh capital, Karachi. One did hit Pad Idan, where it left 60 mm of rain Wednesday. This was more than 20 times greater than the normal June rainfall.
It is still possible that this scenario is over wrought as to the intensity and spread of rain in Pakistan and northwestern India. However, it is the hunch of the present forecaster that some very unusual weather is going to unfold in the Subcontinent during the next week!